Markets

Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 6/7/2011

July corn was down 1/2 of a cent late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look mostly positive today with a weaker US dollar and strength in silver. The market saw no surprise in the weekly plantings updates, and an improved conditions outlook put some pressure on prices. The weekly Crop Progess Report showed that 94% of the corn crop was planted as of Sunday, compared to 86% last week and 99% a year ago. The 10 year average for this time of year is 97%. The lowest percent complete was 82% in 1995. This leaves near 5.53 million acres left to plant. The forecast calls for 1-2 inches or rain in the northern half of the Corn Belt over the next 5 days. Ohio is just 58% complete, leaving 1.554 million acres left to plant, and Indiana is 82% complete, which leaves 1.062 million acres. There are also 378,000 acres in South Dakota and 325,000 in North Dakota that have not been planted. Traders expect Midwest farmers who typically see higher than average yields to make a push to complete their plantings this week, as opposed to stopping at "prevent" planting dates and making insurance claims or swithcing to soybeans. With extremely high profitability on paper, traders believe many farmers in the eastern Corn Belt will take on the risk and plant. For the supply/demand report on Thursday, traders see old crop ending stocks down about 25 million bushels from 730 million last month due to continued active feed and ethanol demand. For the 2011/12 season, ending stocks are expected to come in about 130 million bushels below last month's forecast of 900 million due to declined planted area. The weekly Crop Progress Report also showed that 67% of the corn crop was rated good/excellent as of Sunday, up from to 63% last week and but still below the 76% registered a year ago. The 10-year average for this time of year is 68%. Warm and dry weather helped improve conditions, and with rain in the forecast this coming week, they might improve further. July corn closed sharply lower on the session yesterday, at its lowest level since May 17th, as fund traders turned aggressive sellers based on improved weather in the US and for Europe. Weakness in outside markets, continued talk of the overbought technical condition of the market, and ideas that dry weather will allow more corn to be planted this week helped to drive futures lower. Ideas that nearly 450,000 acres already planted to corn in South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri could be lost due to flooding of the Missouri river helped to provide underlying support. Weekly export inspections, released during the session yesterday, came in at 34.14 million bushels, which was near the high end of expectations. This included some corn sold to China. Shipments need to average 43.5 million each week to reach the current USDA forecast.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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