Markets

Pre-Opening Corn Market Report for 5/16/2011

July corn was up 10 1/2 cents late in the overnight session. Outside market forces look mostly negative with weakness in energy markets and silver and a firm tone to the US dollar. There were 249 deliveries against the May corn this morning. The weather outlook this week is a bit more threatening than what traders suspected on Friday. The Midwest is colder than expected, which could limit drying time, but the central and western parts of the Corn Belt will have 3-4 days of drier weather to move ahead on plantings. However, Indiana and Ohio are expected to get rain than what had been expected, and rains later this week are also expected to hit the Dakotas. There are still persistent rumors that China bought up to 2 million tonnes over the past week. While closing 1 1/2 cents higher on the session Friday, July corn closed 4 1/4 cents lower on the week. Traders are looking for planting progress to be around 60-65% complete for the weekly update this afternoon, compared with 77% as the 10-year average for this time of the year. On top of worrying about getting all the intended acres planted, traders are also concerned that yield will be hindered by the late plantings. Yields have historically declined when corn wass planted late, especially after May 20th. The outlook for hefty rains for the eastern Corn Belt this past weekend and early this week helped support the market Friday, and so did positive outside market factors. But as the day progressed, outside market forces turned negative and the market gave back all of the early gains. Traders noted solid interest from commercial traders on the break. The USDA announced a sale of 271,200 tonnes of US corn to an unknown destination for the new crop season, which was seen as positive factor, but most traders did not think it was China doing the buying. The Commitments of Traders reports as of May 10th showed non-commercial traders were net long 331,628 contracts, a decrease of 35,347 contracts for the week. The selling trend of the fund traders is seen as a short term bearish force. Commodity index traders held a net long position of 387,702 contracts, down 13,845 contracts for the week. Index funds were long as many as 503,937 contracts in August last year.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Other Topics

Commodities