POLL-Turkish inflation seen dipping to near 12% in July


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reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRCPI%3DECI monthly inflation poll

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRCPIY%3DECI annual inflation poll

ISTANBUL, July 30 (Reuters) - Turkey's annual consumer price index is expected to ease toward 12% in July as the economy continued to emerge from lockdown, reversing three months of rising inflation, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The median estimate in a Reuters poll of 13 economists for annual inflation in July stood at 12.10%, with forecasts ranging between 12.37% and 11.85%.

Monthly inflation was expected to rise by 0.9%, with estimates between 1.10% and 0.66%.

Economists cited in part coronavirus-related disruptions to production for the expecting dip in year-over-year price rises.

"The cost advantage of oil is not the same as in previous months and upward risks on food inflation could harbour inflationist impacts," said Enver Erkan, economist at Tera Yatirim, adding he may lift his 10% year-end inflation forecast.

The Turkish central bank, which has held its policy rate at 8.25% since June citing some updraft in prices, on Wednesday raised its year-end inflation forecast to 8.9% from 7.4%.

As pandemic-related demand for goods gradually eases and things return to normal, "inflation will enter a falling trend beginning in July," the bank's governor Murat Uysal said.

For year end, the poll's median inflation estimate of 10 economists was 10%.

Turkish inflation climbed to 12.62% year-on-year in June on jumps in food, alcohol, housing and health prices as the economy began emerging from the near standstill of a coronavirus lockdown.

The Turkish Statistical Institute is expected to announce July inflation data on Tuesday, Aug 4 at 0700 GMT.

(Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)

((ezgi.erkoyun@thomsonreuters.com; +90-212-350 7051; Reuters Messaging: ezgi.erkoyun.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net;))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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