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POLL-Mexican economy likely grew 12% in 3rd quarter after historic slide

Credit: REUTERS/HENRY ROMERO

Mexico's economy in the third quarter likely clawed back a large chunk of the ground lost to coronavirus lockdown as the reopening of business activity gathered pace, a Reuters poll on analysts showed on Monday.

MEXICO CITY, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Mexico's economy in the third quarter likely clawed back a large chunk of the ground lost to coronavirus lockdown as the reopening of business activity gathered pace, a Reuters poll on analysts showed on Monday.

The median forecast of 13 analysts surveyed by Reuters was for a12% seasonally-adjusted increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in the July-September period, after an historic 17.1% drop in the second quarter. MXGDQP=ECI

Between April and May, the majority of Mexico's economic and social activities were suspended due to government restrictions, hampering Latin America's second-largest economy.

"The economic reactivation began in the second half of May and has progressed gradually as new activities have been reopening. This combined with the strong demand by the U.S. market for Mexican exports," said Alfredo Coutino, director of analysis for Latin America for Moody's Analytics.

GDP probably contracted 8.7% in the third quarter year over year, following a 18.7% drop the previous quarter, according to the poll. MXGDYP=ECI

A central bank survey of analysts published this month forecast Mexican GDP would shrink 9.9% this year.

"Over the entire year, the Mexican economy won't escape ... the second-deepest recession of the last century, surpassed only by the 14% contraction reported during the Great Depression," Coutino said.

Mexico's statistics institute will release the third-quarter GDP estimate on Friday.

(Reporting by Miguel Gutierrez and Gabriel Burin, writing by Laura Gottesdiener; Editing by David Gregorio)

((laura.gottesdiener@thomsonreuters.com;))

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