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POLL-Long bets on Taiwan dollar, S.Korean won hit over 2-1/2-year high

Credit: REUTERS/THOMAS WHITE

Long positions on the South Korean won and Taiwan's dollar surged to a more than two-and-a-half year high, a Reuters poll showed, as the export-reliant economies benefited from easing coronavirus lockdowns around the world.

By Shashwat Awasthi

Oct 15 (Reuters) - Long positions on the South Korean won and Taiwan's dollar surged to a more than two-and-a-half year high, a Reuters poll showed, as the export-reliant economies benefited from easing coronavirus lockdowns around the world.

Bets in favour of the Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS rebounded after a sharp pullback earlier this month, while bearish positions on the Thai baht THB=TH and Indonesian's rupiah IDR= were trimmed, the fortnightly poll of 16 respondents showed.

Taiwan's dollar TWD=TP, Asia's best performer so far this year as demand for laptops and other gadgets among people working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic spurs the tech-heavy economy, saw bullish bets jump to their highest since January 2018.

South Korea's won KRW=KFTC has been propped up by rising exports while the central bank has kept its policy rate at a historic low and reiterated an accommodative monetary stance.

While investors were still bearish on Indonesia's rupiah, they trimmed positions from two weeks ago as Bank Indonesia (BI) again held off on cutting interest rates this week, and lawmakers last week passed an "omnibus" bill to improve investment climate and create jobs.

Nicholas Mapa, a senior economist at ING, warned in a note this week that though the rupiah has seen some reprieve since the passage of the law, it "remains susceptible to potential weakness given investor anxiety over BI's recent burden sharing agreement with the national government."

Investors were also still short on the Thai baht after turning bearish earlier this month as protests against the government and monarchy overshadow efforts to rejuvenate the economy, in particular the key tourism sector.

Long bets on Malaysia's ringgit MYR= inched higher despite a political tussle that has seen opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim stake his claim to form a new government and call on Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to resign.

The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.

The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):

DD/MM

CNY

KRW

SGD

IDR

TWD

INR

MYR

PHP

THB

15/10

-1.07

-0.94

-0.72

0.35

-1.12

-0.44

-0.33

-0.15

0.10

01/10

-0.47

-0.53

-0.25

0.61

-0.68

-0.31

-0.31

-0.68

0.38

17/09

-1.25

-0.60

-0.61

0.39

-0.51

-0.54

-0.89

-1.07

-0.17

03/09

-1.41

-0.71

-0.99

-0.19

-0.40

-0.91

-0.96

-1.34

-0.15

20/08

-1.02

-0.71

-0.69

0.43

-0.31

-0.35

-0.62

-1.12

-0.21

06/08

-0.81

-0.44

-0.57

0.45

-0.54

-0.31

-0.29

-0.76

-0.2

23/07

-0.8

-0.19

-0.09

0.61

-0.34

-0.38

-0.22

-0.61

0.24

09/07

-0.37

-0.06

0.13

0.26

-0.22

-0.33

-0.07

-0.48

-0.09

25/06

0.08

0.16

-0.05

-0.05

-0.28

0.10

0.07

-0.05

-0.24

11/06

0.14

-0.05

-0.19

-0.69

-0.26

0.00

0.08

-0.39

-0.41

Poll: Asia's emerging market currencieshttp://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/ASIA-FX/0100214E2S7/index.html

(Reporting by Shashwat Awasthi in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

((Shashwat.Awasthi@tr.com))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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