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POLL-Kazakh tenge may weaken on oil price, trade concerns

Credit: REUTERS/SHAMIL ZHUMATOV

The Kazakh tenge may weaken against the dollar this month, tracking other emerging-market currencies and volatile oil prices, according to a Reuters poll.

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=KZT= poll data

ALMATY, Sept 2 (Reuters) - The Kazakh tenge KZT= may weaken against the dollar this month, tracking other emerging-market currencies and volatile oil prices, according to a Reuters poll.

Eight out of 10 participants in the poll, which was carried out Aug. 26 to Sept. 2, predicted that the currency would slip this month. One analyst foresaw it trading unchanged at about 387 per dollar, and one said it would strengthen.

The 12-month outlook was bearish, with eight analysts forecasting a weaker tenge and two forecasting a flat exchange rate.

The tenge has dropped 0.8% against the dollar so far this year and fell 0.6% in August alone, tracking the Russian rouble RUB=, which came under pressure from U.S. sanctions.

Russia is Kazakhstan's major trade partner and both countries rely heavily on energy exports.

"The external situation is not favourable as the trade war only escalates and emerging-market currencies weaken. Only the pressure on the Fed to cut the rate is a positive signal for the tenge," said Aibek Burabayev of ICBC Almaty.

"(But) one should bear in mind the readiness of the central bank to use the rate hike weapon - it could be a one-off sharp increase of the rate - in order to protect the local currency," he added.

However, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Monday criticised the central bank's monetary policy as too hawkish before its interest rate review, urging the bank to ensure affordable long-term credit is available to local businesses.

(Reporting by Mariya Gordeyeva, writing by Olzhas Auyezov, editing by Larry King)

((olzhas.auyezov@thomsonreuters.com; +7 727 2508 500; Reuters Messaging: olzhas.auyezov.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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