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P.M. Kitco Metals Roundup: Comex Gold, Silver End Higher on Safe-Haven Demand

(Kitco News) - Comex gold and silver futures ended higher and near the middle of their daily trading ranges Monday. Recent weak U.S. economic data, unrest in the Middle East and the simmering European Union debt crisis have all combined to produce safe-haven investment demand for the precious metals. However, weaker crude oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar index did limit buying interest in gold and silver Monday. August gold last traded up $4.10 an ounce at $1,546.50. Spot gold last traded up $3.20 an ounce at $1,546.00. July Comex silver last traded up $0.599 at $36.79 an ounce.

Last Friday's surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report capped off a recent string of weaker U.S. economic data that has unnerved the market place. Rising U.S. Treasury bond and note prices (falling yields) are another sign that investors' risk appetite is shrinking. The keener risk aversion has been a positive for gold, but not quite so much for silver.

There were reports the European Union and International Monetary Fund have reached a debt relief agreement with Greece, without the debt restructuring that would have upset some EU member countries. However, even if an aid package for Greece is agreed upon, the EU sovereign debt crisis will not be resolved quickly or easily and will likely continue to erode confidence and credibility in the European Union.

The U.S. dollar index is traded to firmer Monday, but did hit a fresh four-week low overnight. The U.S. dollar index bulls have faded badly recently and bears still have downside near-term technical momentum. The dollar index is in a posture where it appears likely to head back down and retest the recent 2.5-year low in the near term. The weaker posture of the dollar index has benefited the precious metals market bulls.

Crude oil prices traded lower Monday on market reports Saudi Arabia may lead an effort for OPEC to pump more crude oil amid falling world demand due to higher prices. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but trading has turned choppy. The recent weak U.S. economic data is bearish for crude. Crude oil has been and will continue to be a leader in the raw commodity market sector.

The London P.M. gold fixing $1,549.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,540.00.

Technically, August Comex gold futures closed nearer the session low Monday after hitting a fresh five-week high early on. Gold bulls have the solid overall near-term and longer-term technical advantage. Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the all-time high of $1,577.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $1,520.40. First resistance is seen at Monday's high of $1,555.00 and then at $1,560.00. First support is seen at Monday's low of $1,541.60 and then at $1,533.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

July Comex silver futures closed near mid-range Monday and were boosted by safe-haven buying. Gains were limited by bearish outside markets--a firmer U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices . Silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $34.00. Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $38.84 an ounce. First resistance is seen at $37.00 and then at today's high of $37.285. Next support is seen at Monday's low of $36.22 and then at $36.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

July N.Y. copper closed up 50 points at 413.95 cents Monday. Prices closed near mid-range. Gains were limited by bearish outside markets--a firmer U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices. Copper bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of 426.70 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below major psychological support at 400.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Monday's high of 417.40 cents and then at 420.00 cents. First support is seen at Monday's low of 411.85 cents and then at 410.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

Follow me on Twitter! If you want daily, or nightly, up-to-the-second market analysis on gold and silver price action, follow me on Twitter. It's free, too. My account is @jimwyckoff .

By Jim Wyckoff of Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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