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Oil is already sapping global growth

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Statistic of the day: Every $10 higher that oil trades drains a minimum of 25 basis points from global GDP growth rates. Some say the real impact is more like 50 basis points. With the Brent oil benchmark ( quote ) briefly touching $119 today, that would knock about a full 1 percentage point out of the global economy over the last six months. As a result, it feels like global managers have started taking off risk again. The growth potential out there is simply not as tempting as it once was -- while it does not feel like an oil spike crash ahead, the fundamentals still need to be rebalanced before the markets can make much new progress from here. If an oil crisis is brewing, it will probably take months before the global markets can digest the "new normal." Since Egypt erupted , we are still barely a month into this particular story -- and Brent is already up 20% since then. As a bit of historical context, about half of all the gains made in the oil market over the last six months have come in the past four weeks. This trade really is all about the Middle East and refreshed uncertainty over supply. And as oil inflation creeps into focus , the losers will be the countries that are already wrestling with inflation but now need to import oil at a premium: India, China. These countries happen to be the engine of much of the world's recent economic growth, so the drag may be especially pronounced from that side. Bottom line: As the institutional managers re-rate, EEM ( quote ) may have a hard time going up from here for awhile.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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