Newmont stock (NYSE: NEM) dropped 4.3% in the last one week and has, in fact, underperformed the S&P 500 which increased 0.7% during this period. NEM stock currently trades at almost $58 per share. The decline in stock price was mainly driven by weakness in gold prices. After registering an impressive rise from $1,500/ounce in January 2020 to over $2,000/ounce in September 2020, gold prices have since then remained volatile and have, in fact, largely declined over recent months due to expectations of economic recovery in 2021 following the introduction of vaccines and with lockdowns being lifted gradually. Over the last one-week, gold prices have dropped 2.6% and are currently at $1,790/ounce. The recent drop in gold prices took a toll on Newmont’s stock, as the company gets 94% of its revenue from the yellow metal. Now, is NEM stock set to decline further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 63% chance of a rise in NEM stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on NEM Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.
5D: NEM -4.3%, vs. S&P500 0.7%; Underperformed market
(12% likelihood event)
- Newmont Mining stock declined 4.3% over a five-day trading period ending 2/16/2021, compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.7%
- A change of -4.3% or more over five trading days is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 151 times out of 1256 in the last five years
10D: NEM -3.5%, vs. S&P500 4.5%; Underperformed market
(9% likelihood event)
- Newmont Mining stock declined 3.5% over the last ten trading days (2 weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P 500) rise of 4.5%
- A change of -3.5% or more over ten trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 122 times out of 1240 in the last five years
21D: NEM -8.7%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Underperformed market
(12% likelihood event)
- Newmont Mining stock declined 8.7% the last twenty-one trading days (1 month), compared to a broader market (S&P 500) rise of 3.9%
- A change of -8.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 146 times out of 1198 in the last five years
While Newmont stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how how the stock valuation for Compass Minerals vs Southwest Gas shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.
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