The Nemenoff Report - Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Higher

Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 130'24 and the 10 Yr. Notes 3 lower at 126'28. The long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread is currently at 3'28 premium the Bonds. Needless to say I have overstayed my welcome on this trade (losing $1500 to date), I will be looking to cut my loss if the spread comes in to 3'00 premium the Bonds. The only bright spot in days: The ADP private employment survey showed an increase of 114K jobs versus an average expectation of 86K. Yesterday the market traded through resistance of 130'15 making a high of 131'04, then making a new high of 131'17 this morning just before the ADP number.

Grains: Yesterday beans closed 16 cents higher, Corn 30 higher and Wheat 41 higher. Over night Beans were 4 lower, Corn fractionally lower and Wheat 4 lower. We remain long Corn call spreads which are currently partially in the money. Consider taking some profits. Dec. Corn, to state the obvious, has broken out of it's recent trading range posting a new recent high of 718'4. The market awaits the Aug. 11th Crop Report.

Cattle: Yesterday Oct. Live cattle closed slightly higher at 118.05 after finding resistance in the 118.50 area. Oct. FC closed sharply lower as a result of rallies in feed grain prices. A close below the 137.00 level could be a signal toward lower prices. I favor the short side on rallies.

Silver: Sept. Silver is currently1.04 higher at 41.13. We continue to hold a small long position. Be aware of resistance in the 41.00-42.00 area. Dec. Gold has once again made new highs and is currently trading at 1667.00.

S&P's: Sept. S&P's are currently 6.75 higher at 1254.00. We came in this morning short futures and short the Sept. 1300 put. For those of you who are not risk adverse, cover the futures and wait to cover the short put on a rally above the 1264.00 level if the market allows (this strategy will essentially put you long the market if you cover the futures only). Support is currently 1246.00 and resistance 1272.00.

Currencies: As of this writing the sept. Euro is trading 133 higher at 1.4313, the swissy 44 lower at 1.2987, the Yen 24 higher at 1.2984 and the Pound 97 higher at 1.6386. I'm looking at buying out of the money puts in the Swiss for either Sept. or Oct.



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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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