Near-term Setups in AUD/USD, USD/CHF and Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

AUD/USD Price Chart - 120min Timeframe -

Here's an update on a few of the setups we've been tracking this week. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy.

Fading Aussie Weakness

AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

Aussie turned from a key weekly support confluence with the advance pulling back from near-term uptrend resistance. I'm on the lookout for a possible exhaustion low on a move lower towards confluence support at 7760/62 where basic slope support converges on the 61.8% retracement of the near-term advance and the March open. Intraday trading levels remain unchanged from earlier this week.

AUD/USD IG Client Positioning

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.14 (46.8% of traders are long) - weak bulli sh reading
  • Retail has remained net-short since Dec 19 th ; price has moved 2.9% higher since then
  • Long positions are 5.1% higher than yesterday and 5.8% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 3.1% lower than yesterday and 4.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUDUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short .

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Bitcoin Prices Tumble Towards Support

Bitcoin is on the move after failing at the February highs. The focus is lower while within a well-defined near-term pitchfork formation . Initial support targets eyed at 9168 backed by 8850-8915 . I highlighted this setup including the near-term trading levels in today's Bitcoin Scalp Report .

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Pending USD/CHF Exhaustion Trade?

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart

The Swiss Franc has remained under pressure since the start of the week with USD/CHF pressing into fresh monthly highs today in New York trade. The advance is testing confluence resistance here at 9513/26 here the 61.8% extension and the 38.2% retracement converge on the proposed median line of the ascending pitchfork. Note that daily momentum is also approaching the 60-threshold after recovering from oversold territory. Bottom line: if we breach confluence resistance here, look for a stretch towards 9600 . For now, I'm looking for signs of near-term exhaustion with bullish invalidation steady at the 2017 low-day close at 9439 .


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-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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