Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow: FOMC Insights, 217K Claims, Watch Pivot Points

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 Fundamental Outlook

The week commences quietly with a bank holiday on Monday, offering a momentary pause before a series of data releases and Federal Reserve communications that investors are keenly anticipating.

On Tuesday, the spotlight turns to the CB Leading Index, where a forecasted month-on-month decrease of -0.3% from -0.1% could hint at emerging economic headwinds, setting a cautious tone for market participants.

The narrative gains complexity on Wednesday with FOMC Member Bostic’s speech, which precedes the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. These minutes are crucial for gauging the Federal Reserve’s perspective on monetary policy, particularly in light of recent economic data.

Thursday promises a comprehensive snapshot of the economic landscape, starting with unemployment claims anticipated at 217K, slightly up from 212K the previous week. Manufacturing and services sectors’ health will be under the microscope with Flash Manufacturing PMI expected at 50.1, down from 50.7, and Flash Services PMI projected at 52.0, a decrease from 52.5, indicating a softening in economic activity.

Existing home sales are forecasted to rise to 3.97M from 3.78M, offering a glimpse into the housing market’s resilience. FOMC Member Jefferson’s insights will further enrich the day’s discourse.

The energy sector will also be in focus with Natural Gas Storage and Crude Oil Inventories, expected at -49B and 12.0M, respectively, providing indicators of energy demand and supply dynamics.

The week rounds off with FOMC Member Cook’s speech on Friday, alongside the eagerly awaited Fed Monetary Policy Report, which could offer critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the economic outlook and monetary policy trajectory.

Collectively, these events are laden with the potential to influence investor sentiment and market directions, offering a blend of challenges and opportunities for the indices based on the unfolding economic indicators and Federal Reserve’s cues on future monetary actions.

SPX SP500 Price Forecast

SP500 Price Chart

The S&P 500 (SPX) concluded the week at $5005.56, marking a 0.48% decline. Key technical levels for the upcoming session include a pivot point at $5017.70, with immediate resistance levels ascending from $5043.60 to $5101.63.

Support levels begin at $4995.72, descending to $4919.10. Technical indicators reveal a bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $5017.70. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $4917.04, while the 200-Day EMA is positioned at $4676.1, indicating potential support zones.

In conclusion, the SPX shows a bearish trend unless it surpasses $5017.70.

Dow Price Forecast

Dow Jones Price Chart

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed the week at $38,578.30, experiencing a 0.52% decline. Looking ahead, the pivot point is set at $38,816.60, suggesting key resistance levels at $38,923.19, $39,059.24, and $39,183.45.

Conversely, support levels are established at $38,467.75, $38,333.69, and $38,192.80. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $38,543.06 and the 200-Day EMA at $37,997.72 indicate a potential for upward momentum, provided the index can maintain above these averages.

The positioning of the EMAs supports a cautiously optimistic outlook. In summary, the DJIA appears poised for bullish behavior if it sustains above $38,816.60.

NASDAQ Price Forecast

NASDAQ Price Chart

The NASDAQ concluded the week at $15,775.65, registering a decrease of 0.90%. The upcoming session’s pivot point is marked at $15,915.11, delineating crucial resistance levels at $16,086.68, $16,245.52, and $16,370.72. Support is identified at $15,685.94, with further levels at $15,554.99 and $15,424.04.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $15,514.96 and the 200-Day EMA at $14,630.87 suggest underlying support that could bolster the index’s position. However, the NASDAQ’s current standing below the pivot points towards a bearish outlook, contingent on overcoming the $15,915.11 threshold for a shift in momentum.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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