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Narrowing Peru poll results create opportunities

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Election fears have been dominating the Lima market for months. But now that the final polls are shaping up as a dead heat, traders can get ready to play. Ollanta Humala was pegged as a front runner in the race all spring, but his lead has finally eroded. Now recent polls show a tie between him and centrist candidate Keiko Fujimori. This is good. Humala is a real disaster and the market has priced a lot of that into stock prices. He still look to be a favorite, however, and there will probably be one more washout before you can own some great Peruvian companies. After that, this is shaping up to be a major buying opportunity. The easiest way to play is EPU ( quote ): There is clearly a mining-heavy overlay to this story. Global mining companies did well to ride the commodity boom, but Peruvian stocks were unable to fully participate due to the election angst. The problem is that there is a threat here that far left candidate Humala may take a page from the book of Bolivia or Venezuela and nationalize "the people's assets." If he is elected, Peru becomes a dangerous environment for equity investors, purely on these grounds. But Fujimori has momentum now.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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