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NAB's four key risk events domestically for Australia this week

From National Australia Bank economics (in brief):

Tuesday (11.30am Sydney time, 0030GMT) - RBA Board Minutes from November

  • Unlikely to add further light given the RBA's recent Statement on Monetary Policy
  • The Statement made no material change to the RBA forecasts of GDP or inflation

Tuesday (7.15pm Sydney time ... 0815GMT) - Speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe

  • Title is 'Buffers and Options'
  • Lowe's post board meeting statement contained very few changes apart from slightly more concern being expressed around the housing market - where the term "briskly" was used when describing recent house price appreciation
  • The title 'Buffers and Options' implies some discussion on the effectiveness of low interest rates and the outlook for inflation

Wage Price Index on Wednesday (11.30am Sydney time, 0030GMT)

  • NAB forecasting +0.5% in the September quarter
  • Annual growth down from 2.1% to 2.0%

Thursday (11.30am Sydney time, 0030GMT) Labour Force data for October

  • Trend employment growth has slowed to just 3.9k a month which is well below the 15k a month needed to keep the unemployment rate from rising
  • Recent jobs growth has been driven by part-time employment and has helped to contribute to elevated underemployment
  • Hints that sampling issues may also be behind some of the slowdown
  • This month's employment data will be important in providing clarity over the labour market, and the extent to which momentum may have slowed
  • NAB expects employment to rise 20k, unemployment rate steady at 5.6%

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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