Musk's D-Day: Will Tesla Hit 2023 Target Of 1.8M Deliveries? What To Expect From Q4 Report Today

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is anticipated to unveil its fourth-quarter delivery data on Tuesday ahead of the market opening, a crucial metric influencing the forthcoming earnings release in late January.

What Analysts Predict: Wall Street analysts, as per a Tesla-compiled consensus estimate, project 480,500 units for the fourth quarter, notes Future Fund co-founder Gary Black. Tesla holds the second-largest position in Black’s Future Active ETF (NYSE:FFND).

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, in a late-December preview, suggested that fourth-quarter deliveries might surpass the 480,000-unit range. He pointed to robust weekly insured registration data in China for Tesla EVs, reaching 18,500 units by December 24, helping the company surpass its previous quarterly record.

Troy Teslike, a notable Tesla predictor on X, predicts production and delivery numbers at 505,794 and 479,000 units, respectively.

Hi everybody. Here are my final Tesla production & delivery estimates in a layout that's easy to compare to the actual numbers. I'm aiming for less than a 3% error as usual.Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q4 2023:• My estimate: 479,000• Analyst consensus: 480,483Part 1/4 pic.twitter.com/xhGRoc7PSe

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 31, 2023

To achieve Tesla’s previously stated annual delivery target, the company needs to record deliveries of 475,926 units for the fourth quarter.

On Monday, Chinese EV companies reported robust deliveries for December and the fourth quarter. Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co. Ltd. (OTC:BYDDY) (OTC:BYDDF) reported fourth-quarter battery EV sales of 526,409 units, potentially challenging Tesla’s global EV dominance.

Significance: Tesla’s numerous price cuts in the first half of 2023 impacted its core auto margins, leading to a year-long decline. The company reported earnings and revenue misses for Q3 due to inelastic demand and margin erosion.

The fourth-quarter delivery numbers may shed light on the impact of the Cybertruck launch in late November. Gary Black’s poll on X indicated that 42.3% of respondents expect Tesla to provide 2024 delivery guidance of 2.3 million or more.

Tesla continued its incentives in China, signaling potential demand concerns. In the U.S., starting January 1, 2024, the Model 3 rear-wheel drive and long-range vehicles lost eligibility for the $7,500 EV subsidy, affecting pricing dynamics. Black anticipates Tesla to adjust prices, potentially reducing Model 3 RWD and LR prices while increasing Model 3 Performance and all Model Y trims.

Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster anticipates Tesla to maintain its U.S. EV market share despite increasing competition.

Tesla shares ended Friday’s session down 1.86% to $248.48, according to Benzinga Pro data. It ended 2023 with a gain of 101.72%.

Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.

Read Next: Tesla ‘Is The Only Investable’ EV Play, Says Analyst, As Electric Vehicle Industry Navigates A Tough 2023: Year In Review

Photo via Shutterstock

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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