COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation that was seen in most commodities futures markets as the financial markets remained in turmoil. Chartists noticed that support held and that the market could turn higher again today, but fundamentalists are not convinced that higher prices are here to stay. They remain concerned about demand, and there has been little or no export demand reported by USDA in recent weeks. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. But, supply should become an issue now. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas for the next week. It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas. No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year, and some traders think a squeeze could form against December futures once the delivery period gets close.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get a few showers. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 102.06 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.013 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 105.00, 110.00, and 112.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 243,904
: Positions
: 38,695 116,107 48,957 20,146 15,685 39,177 8,415 13,340 17,363 2,758 55,353
: Changes from: July 26, 2011
: 904 499 1,939 1,982 434 1,300 293 231 -143 399 3,218
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 15.9 47.6 20.1 8.3 6.4 16.1 3.5 5.5 7.1 1.1 22.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 255
: 32 44 18 17 21 71 22 32 56 25 53
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation tied to the disintegration of Tropical Storm Emily. The system did help bring some rains to southeast areas, but that is about it. There are no other tropical threats to Oranges production for now. Charts show that trends are down for now. Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 180.00, 177.00, and 175.00 September, with resistance at 185.00, 188.00, and 190.00 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 47,430
: Positions
: 7,189 35,796 4,180 1,931 64 21,653 0 641 1,455 364 7,173
: Changes from: July 26, 2011
: -100 938 118 0 16 827 0 -15 -153 -10 281
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 15.2 75.5 8.8 4.1 0.1 45.7 0.0 1.4 3.1 0.8 15.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 116
: 18 23 7 5 . 47 0 . 18 12 18
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply higher in all markets at the start of Friday, mostly due to reports of a surprise freeze in Brazil. But, futures gave back almost all the gains as later reports indicated only minor damage. Weather in Brazil is not a problem right now. Warmer temperatures should return for the week. Traders are looking for reasons to buy and sell, and there are not all that many out there for either side. Brazil is still shipping coffee, albeit less than in the last few months, but there is not much coming from Central America. Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe appear ample. Weather remains good in Brazil. Roasters are starting to look for Fall shipments. Charts show that trends turned mixed last week.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 1.525 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 196.98 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible in the south. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 233.00, 230.00, and 229.00 September, and resistance is at 240.00, 246.00, and 248.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2035, 2020, and 1985 September, and resistance is at 2110, 2150, and 2175 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to down with objectives of 304.00 and 270.00 September. Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 294.00 September, and resistance is at 323.00, 326.00, and 327.00 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 174,859
: Positions
: 52,951 70,336 30,491 9,370 9,565 18,395 20,296 9,543 1,263 3,039 44,535
: Changes from: July 26, 2011
: 2,776 1,379 121 17 1,112 945 1,913 -634 152 219 1,772
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 30.3 40.2 17.4 5.4 5.5 10.5 11.6 5.5 0.7 1.7 25.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 345
: 95 98 19 14 21 51 47 49 51 49 73
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and higher in London Friday in liquidation trading tied to weak economic data in the US and around the world and demand worries. Fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. It seems that the weather in Brazil has improved, so most of the crop losses should be known by now. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Demand is said to be falling as buyers are not willing to pay current very high prices. The ship lineup in Brazil ports has diminished, which is considered an indication of weakening demand.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2640 October, and resistance is at 2820, 2910, and 2930 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 715.00, 702.00, and 700.00 October, and resistance is at 738.00, 744.00, and 768.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 865,388
: Positions
: 139,993 416,794 145,596 82,835 64,408 180,763 15,751 56,275 32,309 5,389 155,809
: Changes from: July 26, 2011
: 6,123 -4,432 -3,675 49 -1,011 -3,497 -1,711 1,300 -1,620 -805 852
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.2 48.2 16.8 9.6 7.4 20.9 1.8 6.5 3.7 0.6 18.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 246
: 55 64 18 13 26 62 17 35 35 34 59
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London on what appeared to be speculative short covering tied to US Dollar weakness. Spreads between September and December were noted as positions get rolled forward. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are still down overall on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Fundamentals have not really changed. Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.165 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2830 September. Support is at 2880, 2870, and 2810 September, with resistance at 2920, 2980, and 3050 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800and 1760 September. Support is at 1825, 1790, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1860, 1900, and 1920 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 205,686
: Positions
: 82,181 106,396 22,618 10,248 6,864 32,733 26,434 24,182 5,286 1,714 21,178
: Changes from: July 26, 2011
: 5,603 -3,983 -1,185 518 1,125 -2,701 3,462 755 725 350 2,657
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 40.0 51.7 11.0 5.0 3.3 15.9 12.9 11.8 2.6 0.8 10.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 178
: 36 41 18 7 14 37 37 31 21 12 23
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
