Markets

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS Jack Scoville

General Comments: Futures closed lower in nearby months yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling, although buying tied to poor weather here in the US was seen in new crop months. July was the weakest as funds roll forward, and talk of weak demand hurt the other months. Dry weather in Texas growing areas provided support for new crop Cotton futures. Western Texas, where a large percentage of all US Cotton is grown, has been very dry, and there are no forecasts for much relief, if any, into next week. Eastern areas have had some precipitation in the last week or so, but it remains too dry in many growing areas of the Southeast. Delta areas are warm and dry.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will be dry. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 144.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.049 million bales, from 0.048 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were -143,200 bales this year and 24,500 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 600 bales this year and 0 bales next yewqar.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 139, 137, and 113 July. Support is at 143.00, 142.00, and 140.00 May, with resistance of 148.00, 157.00, and 159.00 May.

June 9 U.S. cotton highlights - USDA

June 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following key

U.S. crop information on cotton in its monthly world supply-and-demand report.

The data includes last month's forecast for comparison.

COTTON

(mln 480 pounds/bales)

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections

Actual Estimate May June

Planted (mln acre) 9.15 10.97 12.57 12.57

Harvested (mln acre) 7.53 10.70 10.80 10.20

Yield/acre 777 812 800 800

Production 12.19 18.10 18.00 17.00

Exports 12.04 15.00 13.50 13.00

Ending stocks 2.95 2.25 2.50 2.50

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday on generally quiet tropical conditions and otherwise favorable weather for now. Florida remains mostly warm and dry, with no forecasts for significant rains in sight. Drought still affects a large portion of the citrus producing area, but crops are called in mostly good condition at this time due to irrigation. Fruit is developing and small fruit is visible on the trees. The fruit is called in good condition due to irrigation. Seasonal forecasts call for a more active than normal Atlantic hurricane season. Charts show that the market is trying to decide on the next move.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions, but afternoon showers are possible. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 181.00, 179.00, and 177.00 July, with resistance at 186.00, 187.00, and 188.00 July.

June 9 U.S. orange highlights-USDA

June 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following key

U.S. orange crop information in its monthly world supply-and-demand report.

The data includes last month's forecast for comparison.

U.S. ORANGE CROP

(thousand boxes)

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

May June

USA crop 210,709 192,835 202,765 202,765

Florida crop 162,500 133,700 140,000 140,000

JUICE YIELD

(gallons per box)

FCOJ yield 1.66 1.56 1.58 1.59

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were a little higher in New York and London, but a little lower in Sao Paulo. The US Dollar was higher, but so were Crude Oil futures and this seemed to be the most important factor. A lot of spreading and liquidation was seen in the July contract as traders start to roll forward. Producers are still not selling much, but there seems to be an uptick in offers now as some producers feel they have missed the market. Roasters are said to be well covered for now. Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term. Talk of lower Mitaca crop production in Colombia after recent big rains and the potential for a freeze in Brazil is offering reasons for speculators to buy. Traders generally expect tight supplies to continue through the next crop year due to lower production in Brazil and for high prices to continue as well. But, there has been no real news to support prices now. Chart show that trends remain mixed for now, with ICE caught between bearish price action in London and bullish price action in Sao Paulo.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 1.671 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 219.99 ct/lb. Brazil should see scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 257.00, 256.00, and 250.00 July, and resistance is at 264.00, 271.00, and 272.00 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2200 July. Support is at 2410, 2360, and 2280 July, and resistance is at 2450, 2500, and 2510 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 354.00, 371.00, and 408.00 September. Support is at 340.00, 337.00, and 327.00 September, and resistance is at 346.00, 348.00, and 352.00 September.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York and in London yesterday, with New York higher on forecasts for rain in production areas and also at ports in Brazil, and with London higher in response to temporarily short supplies. There was a lot of short covering noted as NY July goes off te Board at the end of the month. Demand has been increasing as many Middle Eastern countries get ready for Ramadan. Physicals premiums are stronger for both Raw and White Sugar. There is also talk of shipping and harvest delays from Brazil that could create a short term supply crunch. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. The harvest conditions seem good at this time in Brazil and also in Thailand, and production ideas in both countries are big. India continues to offer, although in small amounts for now.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil this weekend, but showers are likely the rest of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Thailand sold 122,666 tons of Sugar overnight.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2535 and 2570 July. Support is at 2470, 2430, and 2400 July, and resistance is at 2550, 2590, and 2600 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 706.00, 692.00, and 689.00 August, and resistance is at 718.00, 740.00, and 743.00 August.

06/09 07:31a CST DJ USDA Supply/Demand: US Sugar-Jun 9

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/

=====================================================================

Item 2009/2010 2010/2011

prev Jun 9 prev Jun 9

=====================================================================

1,000 short tons, raw value

Beginning stocks 1,510 1,510 1,611 1,607

Production 2/ 7,950 7,946 8,190 8,190

Beet sugar 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,800

Cane sugar 3,150 3,146 3,390 3,390

Florida 1,440 1,433 1,630 1,630

Hawaii 170 170 170 170

Lousiana 1,400 1,400 1,440 1,440

Texas 140 143 150 150

Imports 3,135 3,586 2,599 2,774

TRQ 3/ 1,371 1,752 1,259 1,259

Other program 4/ 375 300 350 350

Other 5/ 1,389 1,534 990 1,165

Mexico 1,349 1,514 980 1,155

Total supply 12,595 13,042 12,400 12,571

Exports 225 250 200 200

Deliveries 11,185 11,185 11,315 11,315

Food 11,000 11,000 11,125 11,125

Other 6/ 185 185 190 190

Miscellaneous 7/ 0 0 0 0

Total use 11,410 11,435 11,515 11,515

Ending stocks 1,185 1,607 885 1,056

Stocks to use ratio 10.4 14.1 7.7 9.2

=====================================================================

1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Historical data are from FSA

"Sweetener Market Data". 2/ Production projections for 2011/12 are

based on March 31 Prospective Plantings and trend yields. 3/ For

2010/11, shortfall (50). For 2011/12, includes only U.S. commitments

under current trade agreements, minus shortfall (140). The Secretary

will establish the actual level of the TRQ at a later date.

4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs.

5/ For 2009/10, other high-tier (207) and other (0). For 2010/11,

other high-tier (20) and other (0). For 2011/12, other high-tier (10)

and other (0). 6/Combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use

and SMD miscellaneous uses. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products

for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol and feed.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London on what appeared to be speculative short covering. The close was not real strong, but ideas are that the market might have made a temporary low. Fundamentals have not really changed. Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market, but prices have dropped a lot already. There is talk that much of the reaction to the increased flow of Cocoa from Ivory Coast is already part of the market. Ghana is also exporting in a big way. Overall ideas are that production there and in the rest of West Africa are improved this year due to the good rains and generally favorable weather patterns. The mid crop is supposed to be big this year in all countries in West Africa and will probably get exported quickly now. Trends are still down, but the market is trying to base for a short term rally.

Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.247 million bags. Brazil Cocoa arrivals are 94,324 bags this week.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2750 July. Support is at 2900, 2860, and 2785 July, with resistance at 2950, 3020, and 3100 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 July, with resistance at 1810, 1850, and 1860 July.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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