COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed lower on selling seen in most markets due to poor US and world economic data, but closed well off the lows on ideas of bad production here and in Pakistan and countries near there. More talk of big rains in Pakistan created ideas that crops could be lost there. Chinese growing areas have possibly hurt by rains as well, and it was hot this year in Uzbekistan. Chart trends still show a neutral bias, but the market appears ready to go higher. Demand remains soft. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week. It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas. No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible, mostly in northern areas. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 105.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday. USDA said that its world market Upland Cotton average price is now 89.94 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 104.00, 101.00, and 100.00 October, with resistance of 110.00, 112.00, and 116.00 October.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed mixed as traders were more concerned with world economics. Several potential tropical storms have surfaced in the Atlantic in the last week, and some forecasters say that one could hit the US in about 10 days. It will be watched but it is far away and could change direction and miss everything or fizzle out as well as become a threat. Charts show that trends are mixed as traders look for news and a reason to buy or sell. Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is seeing moderate temperatures and mostly dry conditions for now.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 159.00 September, with resistance at 177.00, 179.00, and 183.00 September.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday while most other markets were falling along with financial markets on bad world economic news. Industry and origin appeared to be quiet. There is a lot of talk that Vietnam has sold all of the Robusta it has to sell for now. Brazil is not selling much, and Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out. However, industry is said to be covered for now. Weather in Brazil is good, but other parts of Latin America could use improved weather. It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and we have heard reports of too much rain again now in Colombia Warmer temperatures are expected for much of the week in Brazil. Chart trends remain up in London and turned up this week in New York and Sao Paulo.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.482 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 218.39 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 275.00 September. Support is at 259.00, 256.00, and 253.00 September, and resistance is at 266.00, 272.00, and 273.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2550 September. Support is at 2200, 2175, and 2150 September, and resistance is at 2315, 2330, and 2390 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 350.00, 362.00, and 372.00 September. Support is at 338.00, 328.00, and 323.00 September, and resistance is at 349.00, 351.00, and 359.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and in London yesterday in sympathy with price action in financial markets. There just has not been any news to excite the bulls lately, and fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Chart trends turned up with the price action yesterday.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3080 and 3310 October. Support is at 2850, 2835, and 2820 October, and resistance is at 2950, 3000, and 3030 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 822.00 and 883.00 October. Support is at 748.00, 744.00, and 738.00 October, and resistance is at 776.00, 797.00, and 801.00 October.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London along with world financial markets. Cocoa may still have found a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are still down overall on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Fundamentals have not really changed. Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.014 million bags. ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 0 contracts for the month. Ghana purchased 5,605 tons of Cocoa last week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2950, 2910, and 2900 September, with resistance at 3090, 3135, and 3145 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1855, 1840, and 1830 September, with resistance at 1920, 1935, and 1975 September.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
