COTTON
General Comments: Futures closed higher as traders anticipated bullish production data from USDA today. Traders anticipated product ion near 15.29 million bales. The financial markets remained in turmoil and this kept buying and selling interest thin. Chart trends began to turn down this week and still show a negative bias. Demand remains soft and what USDA shows for the coming year will be a factor in trading ideas today. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week. It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas. No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get a few showers. It should be dry on Sunday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 99.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were -5,600 bales this year2,000 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 0 bales this year and next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 93.00 and 84.00 October. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 90.00 October, with resistance of 100.00, 101.00, and 104.00 October.
8-11-2011 07:30 August 11 U.S. cotton highlights - USDA
August 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following
key U.S. crop information on cotton in its monthly world supply-and-demand
report.
The data includes last month's forecast for comparison.
COTTON
(mln 480 pounds/bales)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections
Actual Estimate July Aug
Planted (mln acre) 9.15 10.97 13.73 13.73
Harvested (mln acre) 7.53 10.70 9.60 9.67
Yield/acre 777 812 800 822
Production 12.19 18.10 16.00 16.55
Exports 12.04 14.40 12.00 12.30
Ending stocks 2.95 2.85 3.00 3.30
DJ USDA Cotton Ginnings Report==Aug 11
Running Bales Ginned by Crop, States and US,
August 1, 2008-2011
(Excluding linters)
============================================================================
Crop and State Running Bales ginned
==============================================================-
2008 Crop 2009 Crop 2010 Crop 2011 Crop
==============================================================-
August 1, 2008 August 1, 2009 August 1, 2010 August 1, 2011
============================================================================
Number
All cotton
TX 13,050 5,150 1/ 202,750
US 13,050 5,150 1/ 202,750
American Pima
TX - - - -
US - - - -
============================================================================
- Represents zero.
1/ Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual gins.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower one more time yesterday on what appeared to be follow through speculative long liquidation tied to the lack of any threatening weather in Florida on one side and the meltdown in world equities markets on the other. Charts show that trends are down for now, but futures appear very oversold. Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now. Charts show that the three day move lower has been extreme and that a rebound is possible at any time.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 157.00, 154.00, and 151.00 September, with resistance at 163.00, 166.00, and 169.00 September.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were mixed yesterday as traders wrestled with all of the turmoil seen in world financial markets. No one knows if it is better to buy or sell, so most are just getting out of positions.. Weather in Brazil is good. Warmer temperatures are expected for much of the week, but it could turn cold again at the end of the week, although not cold enough to freeze. Brazil is still shipping coffee, albeit less than in the last few months, but there is not much coming from Central America except for some final shipments. Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe are good. Roasters are starting to look for Fall shipments. Charts show that trends turned down again this week, but prices remain very close to objectives for the move. The New York charts show a potential bear flag in formation.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little higher today and are about 1.499 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 197.78 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible in the south. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 232.00 and 223.00 September. Support is at 232.00, 230.00, and 229.00 September, and resistance is at 238.00, 240.00, and 246.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2080, and 2065 September, and resistance is at 2150, 2175, and 2200 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 304.00 and 270.00 September. Support is at 307.00, 294.00, and 293.00 September, and resistance is at 313.00, 317.00, and 323.00 September.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed mostly a little higher in New York and lower in London yesterday as world equity markets moved much lower. Fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong. It seems that the weather in Brazil has improved, so most of the crop losses should be known by now. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Demand is said to be falling as buyers are not willing to pay current very high prices. The ship lineup in Brazil ports has diminished, which is considered an indication of weakening demand. Thai export sources are telling wire services that export premiums have already fallen quite a bit in the last few weeks and should fall more as supplies increase in Asia.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. India is considering an industry request to permit another 500,000 tons of Sugar exports.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2730, 2700, and 2680 October, and resistance is at 2820, 2835, and 2910 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 715.00, 702.00, and 700.00 October, and resistance is at 744.00, 748.00, and 768.00 October.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: US Sugar-Aug 11
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
=====================================================================
Item 2009/2010 2010/2011
prev Aug 11 prev Aug 11
=====================================================================
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 1,510 1,498 1,527 1,785
Production 2/ 7,946 7,946 8,190 8,110
Beet sugar 4,800 4,800 4,800 4,750
Cane sugar 3,146 3,146 3,390 3,360
Florida 1,433 1,433 1,630 1,630
Hawaii 170 170 170 170
Lousiana 1,400 1,400 1,440 1,400
Texas 143 143 150 160
Imports 3,556 3,826 3,072 2,962
TRQ 3/ 1,832 1,882 1,259 1,384
Other program 4/ 300 300 350 350
Other 5/ 1,424 1,644 1,463 1,228
Mexico 1,404 1,624 1,453 1,218
Total supply 13,012 13,270 12,789 12,857
Exports 250 250 200 200
Deliveries 11,235 11,235 11,315 11,315
Food 11,000 11,000 11,125 11,125
Other 6/ 235 235 190 190
Miscellaneous 7/ 0 0 0 0
Total use 11,485 11,485 11,515 11,515
Ending stocks 1,527 1,785 1,274 1,342
Stocks to use ratio 10.4 15.5 11.1 11.7
=====================================================================
COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and higher in London in liquidation trading. Cocoa is trying to find a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections. Spreads between September and December were noted as positions get rolled forward before September deliveries start next week. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Trends are still down overall on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Fundamentals have not really changed. Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.109 million bags. Brazil Cocoa arrivals are 83,467 bags this week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2830, 2770, and 2640 September. Support is at 2810, 2800, and 2730 September, with resistance at 2870, 2880, and 2920 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1825, 1790, and 1760 September, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1960 September.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
