Credit: Shutterstock photoCOTTON
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday on speculative selling tied to long liquidation and unease over the deficit talks in Washington and what a bad result could do to the economy. Traders also remain concerned about demand, and there has been little or no export demand reported by USDA in recent weeks. Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US. But, supply should become an issue now. Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week. It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas. No relief from the drought appears likely this week after the tropical storm from last week did little good.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get a few showers, mostly in the Southeast. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average above to much above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 104.99 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.013 million bales, from 0.015 million yesterday. USDA said that its weekly world market price for Upland Cotton is now 93.51 ct/lb. India says it could export another 1.5 million bales of Cotton this year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 109.00 and 117.00 October. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 October, with resistance of 104.00, 105.00, and 110.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 26, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 236,114
: Positions
: 37,792 115,608 47,018 18,165 15,251 37,877 8,122 13,109 17,506 2,360 52,135
: Changes from: July 19, 2011
: -653 3,483 427 -237 600 2,040 -46 -329 897 -69 2,265
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.0 49.0 19.9 7.7 6.5 16.0 3.4 5.6 7.4 1.0 22.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 252
: 32 44 19 16 20 67 25 34 56 23 53
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed mixed to a little higher again Friday in quiet trading. Charts show that trends turned up again last week, then failed to hold the uptrend. A new tropical system is forming in the Atlantic near Trinidad that could move close to Florida in several days. It is too far away to give any accurate estimates of what could happen, if anything. Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers. Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 194.00, 192.00, and 190.00 September, with resistance at 202.00, 205.00, and 208.00 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 26, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 46,311
: Positions
: 7,289 34,858 4,062 1,931 48 20,827 0 657 1,609 374 6,893
: Changes from: July 19, 2011
: 238 777 10 0 0 355 0 52 58 34 346
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 15.7 75.3 8.8 4.2 0.1 45.0 0.0 1.4 3.5 0.8 14.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 117
: 18 22 7 5 . 47 0 . 18 14 18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were a little higher in all markets Friday, with many traders getting out of positions as the deficit talks in Washington drag on. No one otherwise seems real interested in the coffee market right now. Brazil is still shipping coffee, but there is not much coming from Central America. Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe appear ample. Europe and the US are now in vacation times and seeing less demand. Weather remains good in Brazil, with moderate temperatures and mostly dry weather. Roasters are said to be well covered for now, but will soon start looking for Fall shipments. Many buyers will need to be back from vacations within the next couple of weeks. Charts show that a low could be forming in New York. The current weather forecasts for Brazil call for much cooler weather later this week, but not cold enough to hurt crops.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.534 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 198.52 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry weather, but a few showers are possible in the south. Temperatures will average near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 238.00, 233.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 242.00, 244.00, and 247.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2060, 2020, and 1985 September, and resistance is at 2120, 2150, and 2200 September. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 294.00 September, and resistance is at 326.00, 327.00, and 328.00 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 26, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 168,512
: Positions
: 50,175 68,957 30,370 9,353 8,453 17,450 18,383 10,177 1,111 2,820 42,764
: Changes from: July 19, 2011
: 45 -4,266 -364 258 -2,111 -888 1,486 2,314 -8 208 2,829
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 29.8 40.9 18.0 5.6 5.0 10.4 10.9 6.0 0.7 1.7 25.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 347
: 98 101 19 14 18 52 49 54 49 47 75
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in New York and in London Friday in follow through liquidation trading. Traders are waiting for news from Washington before doing too much. Both markets are seeing the fundamental emphasis change a little bit. Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but this news has been known for quite a while now. However, production in other parts of the world seems strong. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. In fact, India is being asked by its mills to allow more exports, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower. Demand is said to be falling as buyers are not willing to pay current very high prices.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to above normal. India might allow exports of another 500,000 tons of Sugar this year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2810 October. Support is at 2930, 2910, and 2820 October, and resistance is at 3000, 3160, and 3190 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 772.00 and 740.00 October. Support is at 770.00, 768.00, and 744.00 October, and resistance is at 791.00, 796.00, and 815.00 October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 26, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 873,515
: Positions
: 133,871 421,226 149,271 82,785 65,418 184,260 17,462 54,975 33,928 6,194 154,957
: Changes from: July 19, 2011
: -2,061 8,496 2,771 4,178 634 2,155 -8,972 3,286 1,894 -832 13,629
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 15.3 48.2 17.1 9.5 7.5 21.1 2.0 6.3 3.9 0.7 17.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 242
: 51 62 17 13 26 63 16 31 30 38 57
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COCOA
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in New York and in London on what appeared to be speculative selling. Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa created some selling pressure, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less. Speculators were the best buyers, and origin remains quiet. Trends are still down overall on the charts. For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally. Fundamentals have not really changed. Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 4.185 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2950 September. Support is at 2950, 2920, and 2880 September, with resistance at 3050, 3120, and 3155 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800and 1760 September. Support is at 1830, 1825, and 1790 September, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1960 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 26, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 199,527
: Positions
: 76,579 110,378 23,803 9,731 5,739 35,434 22,972 23,426 4,561 1,364 18,521
: Changes from: July 19, 2011
: 4,092 -2 -5 -559 1,528 -4,157 -149 1,642 295 -543 -124
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 38.4 55.3 11.9 4.9 2.9 17.8 11.5 11.7 2.3 0.7 9.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 174
: 33 40 20 5 11 42 32 28 19 11 25
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.