Markets

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS Jack Scoville

DJ SURVEY: 2011 U.S. Wheat Production

The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011

U.S. winter wheat production based on conditions as of August 1, as compiled by

Dow Jones Newswires.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated wheat

production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of

estimates in that average and range.

Average Range July 2010

USDA Output

All Wheat(17) 2.085 2.015-2.134 2.106 2.208

All Winter (15) 1.483 1.400-1.505 1.492 1.485

Hard Red Winter(13) 0.795 0.779-0.809 0.791 1.018

Soft Red Winter(13) 0.457 0.446-0.465 0.458 0.238

White Winter (13) 0.241 0.231-0.245 0.243 0.229

Other spring (15) 0.550 0.515-0.577 0.551 0.616

Durum (15) 0.062 0.058-0.065 0.064 0.107

All All HRW SRW White Other Durum

Wheat Winter Winter Spring

ABN Amro 2.067 1.505 0.800 0.465 0.240 0.560 0.064

ADM Investor Services 2.123 1.500 0.799 0.458 0.243 0.560 0.063

AgriVisor 2.109 1.495 0.798 0.455 0.242 0.556 0.058

Allendale 2.026 1.429 n/a n/a n/a 0.533 0.063

Citigroup 2.076 1.460 0.779 0.446 0.235 0.554 0.063

Doane Advisory 2.026 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Farm Futures 2.134 1.491 n/a n/a n/a 0.577 0.062

Global Cmd Analytics 2.052 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

*Informa 2.117 1.504 0.809 0.453 0.242 0.555 0.058

Jefferies Bache 2.104 1.486 0.792 0.451 0.243 0.555 0.063

Kropf/Love 2.086 1.500 0.797 0.460 0.243 0.526 0.060

Macquarie 2.069 1.492 0.787 0.464 0.241 0.515 0.062

NARMS 2.104 1.501 0.805 0.455 0.241 0.542 0.060

Newedge 2.121 1.500 0.796 0.461 0.243 0.556 0.065

PFG Best 2.095 1.487 0.790 0.455 0.242 0.546 0.062

Price Group 2.015 1.400 0.791 0.458 0.231 0.550 0.065

RJ O'Brien 2.118 1.501 0.797 0.460 0.245 0.558 0.058

*From Trade Sources

DJ SURVEY: USDA August Corn, Soybean Production Report

The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011

U.S. corn and soybean production based on conditions as of August 1, as

compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated

production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of

estimates in that average and range.

July 2010

Average Range USDA Production

Corn (23) 13.083 12.775-13.356 13.470 12.447

Soybeans (23) 3.174 3.119-3.225 3.225 3.329

Yield July 2010

Average Range USDA Yield

Corn (23) 155.2 151.0-158.0 158.7 152.8

Soybeans (23) 42.8 42.0-43.4 43.4 43.5

Corn Corn Soy Soy

Production Yield Production Yield

ABN Amro 13.104 156.0 3.195 43.0

ADM Inv Services 13.224 156.5 3.212 43.4

AgriSource 13.100 154.9 3.150 42.5

Agrivisor 13.235 157.1 3.141 42.5

Allendale 12.953 155.2 3.119 42.0

Citigroup 13.106 155.1 3.148 42.5

Doane Advisory 13.221 157.5 3.150 42.5

Farm Futures 12.877 153.3 3.162 42.5

FC Stone 13.002 153.2 3.145 42.4

Globl Cmd Anlytics 12.979 153.6 3.171 43.0

*Informa 13.353 158.0 3.139 42.5

Jeffries Bache 13.066 156.0 3.186 42.7

Kropf and Love 13.075 154.0 3.200 43.0

Linn Group 12.775 152.1 3.148 43.0

Macquarie Bank 13.087 155.8 3.194 43.1

N. Am Risk Mgmt 13.100 156.0 3.199 43.0

Newedge 13.062 155.3 3.201 43.1

PFG Best 12.950 156.9 3.200 43.0

Price Group 13.075 154.0 3.195 43.0

Prime Ag 13.350 158.0 3.225 43.4

Risk Mgmt Comm 12.820 151.0 3.120 42.5

RJ O'Brien 13.045 153.7 3.186 42.9

U.S. Commodities 13.356 157.5 3.225 43.4

*From Trade Sources

DJ SURVEY: August US Grain, Soybean Carryout

The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for U.S.

grain and soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 and 2011-12, as compiled by Dow

Jones Newswires.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply

and demand estimates at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number

of estimates in that average and range.

2010-11

July 2009-10

Average Range USDA USDA

Corn (12) 0.923 0.880-1.005 0.880 1.708

Soybeans (12) 0.223 0.200-0.235 0.200 0.151

Corn Soy

ADM Inv Services 0.905 0.230

Allendale 0.913 0.205

Citigroup 0.930 0.220

Doane Advisory 0.905 0.235

Farm Futures 0.910 0.208

Jefferies Bache 0.905 0.235

Macquarie Bank 0.932 0.234

Newedge 0.930 0.220

North America Risk Mgmt 1.005 0.225

Price Group 0.880 0.200

RJ O'Brien 0.941 0.235

U.S. Commodities 0.920 0.225

2011-12

July

Average Range USDA

Corn (20) 0.741 0.527-0.986 0.870

Soybeans (20) 0.172 0.110-0.222 0.175

Wheat (18) 0.671 0.629-0.762 0.670

Corn Soy Wheat

ABN Amro 0.950 0.190 0.710

ADM Inv Services 0.749 0.222 0.680

AgriSource 0.625 0.155 0.645

AgriVisor 0.986 0.161 0.713

Allendale 0.742 0.154 0.703

Citigroup 0.771 0.150 0.660

Doane Advisory 0.746 0.160 0.640

Farm Futures 0.527 0.161 0.640

Global Commodity Analytics 0.594 0.133 0.637

Jefferies Bache 0.641 0.175 0.668

Kropf & Love 0.675 0.175 0.650

Macquarie Bank 0.739 0.207 0.629

Newedge 0.750 0.170 0.762

North America Risk Mgmt 0.725 0.180 0.668

PFG Best 0.750 0.172 0.665

Price Group 0.800 0.175 0.635

Prime Ag 0.850 0.210 0.670

RJ O'Brien 0.696 0.178 0.697

Risk Management Commod 0.675 0.110 n/a

U.S. Commodities 0.821 0.205 n/a

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday in recovery trading as markets mirrored action in the US stock market and also noted the poor conditions in the US Great Plains. The FED signaled that interest rates will remain very low for the next couple of years, and US equities markets responded with even more gains. Positive export demand news is coming back to the US as the US price is finally getting competitive with Russia. Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue, although Corn weather has improved a lot this week. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest. Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas. Charts show that the trends are turning mixed after the price action this week.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation. Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Saudi Arabia has tendered 660,000 tons of Hard Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 644, 642, and 640 September, with resistance at 690, 705, and 723 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 750, 746, and 732 September, with resistance at 789, 810, and 832 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 799, 785, and 777 September, and resistance is at 830, 836, and 840 September.

RICE

General Comments: Prices were sharply higher to limit up yesterday in sympathy with the recovery seen in world equities markets and also in other grains markets. The market remains very concerned about the quality and yields potential for the Rice crop here this year. Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume. The weather has started to moderate in the Mid South, but the region will not get a lot of rain. Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states. No milling yield reports have been heard yet. Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states. Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies. New crop bids have also been steady to firm. Mixed reports about cash markets have been heard in Texas. The charts have a weak overall appearance, but futures are in a range for the short term, and price action late last week implies that the market knows it has big crop losses to contend with here in the US.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week. Temperatures will average above normal. Philippines said that first half 2011 Rice production was 7.58 million tons, up 14.4% from 2010.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1716 and 1787 September. Support is at 1644, 1628, and 1622 September, and resistance is at 1689, 1702, and 1719 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - Aug 10

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain ( MLG )

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates.

-----World Price----- MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value Rough Rough

($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)

Long Grain 21.48 14.06 0.00

Medium/Short Grain 21.19 14.38 0.00

Brokens 15.20 ---- ----

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to the rally in the world stock markets and to crop losses here in the US. Traders are also worried about world growth prospects after the recent action in financial markets. Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be. Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for central and eastern areas this week. Cooler temperatures will move into southern areas later in the week. There have been more reports of yield loss, but most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the recent hot weather as crop color remains good. Better weather now would help improve yield potential, but some losses are still expected. We feel that production could be about 13.07 billion bushels. Forecasts are calling for some showers and more moderate temperatures in southern areas as well. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress. However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 671, 662, and 659 September, and resistance is at 684, 688, and 693 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 327, 323, and 321 September, and resistance is at 340, 346, and 350 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on forecasts for more moderate growing conditions for the next week in the Midwest. Traders are worried about world growth prospects as well even with the FED announcement yesterday. Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest last week has aided in crop development, and better conditions are noted now in the south. Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers and storms in most areas this week and this weekend. Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest. August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now. Gulf basis levels were unchanged. Charts show that trends are turning down with the better US weather.

Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. China imported 5.35 million tons of Soybeans in July.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1275 September. Support is at 1285, 1277, and 1256 September, and resistance is at 1304, 1315, and 1322 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 330.00 September, and resistance is at 348.00, 349.00, and 353.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5320, 5260, and 5220 September, with resistance at 5370, 5410, and 5480 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was a little lower on weakness in Chicago. The big speculative selling in Chicago was caused mostly by improving crop conditions in the Midwest and Canola went down in sympathy. Commercials were scale down buyers. Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop. Most crops appear to be in good condition. It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast. European conditions are good. Swathing has started in Saskatchewan. Palm Oil was higher today in recovery trading. The MPOB data was neutral to futures. Charts show that trends have turned down this week.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 532.00 November. Support is at 530.00, 528.00, and 511.00 November, with resistance at 545.00, 551.00, and 553.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2900, 2875, and 2850 October, with resistance at 2960, 32975, and 2990 October.

08/09 23:40 CDT Malaysia's July palm oil stocks ease 2.8 pct

(volumes in tonnes)

July 2011 July poll July 2010 June 2011

Output 1,751,264 1,700,607 1,518,896 1,753,191

Stocks 1,996,317 1,996,000 1,409,252 2,053,382

Exports 1,729,518 1,630,000 1,459,881 1,585,039

Imports* 97,114 60,000 100,521 88,340

* Refers to Malaysian imports of mostly Indonesian crude

palm oil

Midwest Weather: More showers again this weekend and by the middle of next week. Temperatures will average near normal.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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