Markets

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS Jack Scoville

DJ SURVEY: 2011 U.S. Wheat Production

The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011

U.S. winter wheat production based on conditions as of August 1, as compiled by

Dow Jones Newswires.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated wheat

production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of

estimates in that average and range.

Average Range July 2010

USDA Output

All Wheat(17) 2.085 2.015-2.134 2.106 2.208

All Winter (15) 1.483 1.400-1.505 1.492 1.485

Hard Red Winter(13) 0.795 0.779-0.809 0.791 1.018

Soft Red Winter(13) 0.457 0.446-0.465 0.458 0.238

White Winter (13) 0.241 0.231-0.245 0.243 0.229

Other spring (15) 0.550 0.515-0.577 0.551 0.616

Durum (15) 0.062 0.058-0.065 0.064 0.107

All All HRW SRW White Other Durum

Wheat Winter Winter Spring

ABN Amro 2.067 1.505 0.800 0.465 0.240 0.560 0.064

ADM Investor Services 2.123 1.500 0.799 0.458 0.243 0.560 0.063

AgriVisor 2.109 1.495 0.798 0.455 0.242 0.556 0.058

Allendale 2.026 1.429 n/a n/a n/a 0.533 0.063

Citigroup 2.076 1.460 0.779 0.446 0.235 0.554 0.063

Doane Advisory 2.026 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Farm Futures 2.134 1.491 n/a n/a n/a 0.577 0.062

Global Cmd Analytics 2.052 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

*Informa 2.117 1.504 0.809 0.453 0.242 0.555 0.058

Jefferies Bache 2.104 1.486 0.792 0.451 0.243 0.555 0.063

Kropf/Love 2.086 1.500 0.797 0.460 0.243 0.526 0.060

Macquarie 2.069 1.492 0.787 0.464 0.241 0.515 0.062

NARMS 2.104 1.501 0.805 0.455 0.241 0.542 0.060

Newedge 2.121 1.500 0.796 0.461 0.243 0.556 0.065

PFG Best 2.095 1.487 0.790 0.455 0.242 0.546 0.062

Price Group 2.015 1.400 0.791 0.458 0.231 0.550 0.065

RJ O'Brien 2.118 1.501 0.797 0.460 0.245 0.558 0.058

*From Trade Sources

DJ SURVEY: USDA August Corn, Soybean Production Report

The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011

U.S. corn and soybean production based on conditions as of August 1, as

compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated

production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of

estimates in that average and range.

July 2010

Average Range USDA Production

Corn (23) 13.083 12.775-13.356 13.470 12.447

Soybeans (23) 3.174 3.119-3.225 3.225 3.329

Yield July 2010

Average Range USDA Yield

Corn (23) 155.2 151.0-158.0 158.7 152.8

Soybeans (23) 42.8 42.0-43.4 43.4 43.5

Corn Corn Soy Soy

Production Yield Production Yield

ABN Amro 13.104 156.0 3.195 43.0

ADM Inv Services 13.224 156.5 3.212 43.4

AgriSource 13.100 154.9 3.150 42.5

Agrivisor 13.235 157.1 3.141 42.5

Allendale 12.953 155.2 3.119 42.0

Citigroup 13.106 155.1 3.148 42.5

Doane Advisory 13.221 157.5 3.150 42.5

Farm Futures 12.877 153.3 3.162 42.5

FC Stone 13.002 153.2 3.145 42.4

Globl Cmd Anlytics 12.979 153.6 3.171 43.0

*Informa 13.353 158.0 3.139 42.5

Jeffries Bache 13.066 156.0 3.186 42.7

Kropf and Love 13.075 154.0 3.200 43.0

Linn Group 12.775 152.1 3.148 43.0

Macquarie Bank 13.087 155.8 3.194 43.1

N. Am Risk Mgmt 13.100 156.0 3.199 43.0

Newedge 13.062 155.3 3.201 43.1

PFG Best 12.950 156.9 3.200 43.0

Price Group 13.075 154.0 3.195 43.0

Prime Ag 13.350 158.0 3.225 43.4

Risk Mgmt Comm 12.820 151.0 3.120 42.5

RJ O'Brien 13.045 153.7 3.186 42.9

U.S. Commodities 13.356 157.5 3.225 43.4

*From Trade Sources

DJ SURVEY: August US Grain, Soybean Carryout

The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for U.S.

grain and soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 and 2011-12, as compiled by Dow

Jones Newswires.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply

and demand estimates at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number

of estimates in that average and range.

2010-11

July 2009-10

Average Range USDA USDA

Corn (12) 0.923 0.880-1.005 0.880 1.708

Soybeans (12) 0.223 0.200-0.235 0.200 0.151

Corn Soy

ADM Inv Services 0.905 0.230

Allendale 0.913 0.205

Citigroup 0.930 0.220

Doane Advisory 0.905 0.235

Farm Futures 0.910 0.208

Jefferies Bache 0.905 0.235

Macquarie Bank 0.932 0.234

Newedge 0.930 0.220

North America Risk Mgmt 1.005 0.225

Price Group 0.880 0.200

RJ O'Brien 0.941 0.235

U.S. Commodities 0.920 0.225

2011-12

July

Average Range USDA

Corn (20) 0.741 0.527-0.986 0.870

Soybeans (20) 0.172 0.110-0.222 0.175

Wheat (18) 0.671 0.629-0.762 0.670

Corn Soy Wheat

ABN Amro 0.950 0.190 0.710

ADM Inv Services 0.749 0.222 0.680

AgriSource 0.625 0.155 0.645

AgriVisor 0.986 0.161 0.713

Allendale 0.742 0.154 0.703

Citigroup 0.771 0.150 0.660

Doane Advisory 0.746 0.160 0.640

Farm Futures 0.527 0.161 0.640

Global Commodity Analytics 0.594 0.133 0.637

Jefferies Bache 0.641 0.175 0.668

Kropf & Love 0.675 0.175 0.650

Macquarie Bank 0.739 0.207 0.629

Newedge 0.750 0.170 0.762

North America Risk Mgmt 0.725 0.180 0.668

PFG Best 0.750 0.172 0.665

Price Group 0.800 0.175 0.635

Prime Ag 0.850 0.210 0.670

RJ O'Brien 0.696 0.178 0.697

Risk Management Commod 0.675 0.110 n/a

U.S. Commodities 0.821 0.205 n/a

U.S. Weekly Crop Progress Highlights - USDA

WASHINGTON, Aug. 08 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture

Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):

Week ended 08/07/11 07/31/11 08/07/10 5-year

COTTON CONDITION

- Excellent 5 5 18 N/A

- Good 25 25 47 N/A

- Fair 29 30 25 N/A

- Poor 19 18 8 N/A

- Very Poor 22 22 2 N/A

CORN CONDITION

- Excellent 15 16 23 N/A

- Good 45 46 48 N/A

- Fair 24 24 19 N/A

- Poor 10 9 7 N/A

- Very Poor 6 5 3 N/A

SOYBEANS CONDITION

- Excellent 13 14 18 N/A

- Good 48 46 48 N/A

- Fair 26 28 23 N/A

- Poor 9 9 8 N/A

- Very Poor 4 3 3 N/A

RICE CONDITION

- Excellent 27 23 20 N/A

- Good 39 41 52 N/A

- Fair 25 27 23 N/A

- Poor 7 6 5 N/A

- Very Poor 2 3 0 N/A

SPRING WHEAT CONDITION

- Excellent 11 14 16 N/A

- Good 55 56 66 N/A

- Fair 27 23 15 N/A

- Poor 5 5 3 N/A

- Very Poor 2 2 0 N/A

SORGHUM CONDITION

- Excellent 3 2 9 N/A

- Good 24 22 57 N/A

- Fair 33 32 26 N/A

- Poor 22 24 6 N/A

- Very Poor 18 20 2 N/A

PEANUTS CONDITION

- Excellent 6 7 11 N/A

- Good 37 36 49 N/A

- Fair 36 36 31 N/A

- Poor 15 16 8 N/A

- Very Poor 6 5 1 N/A

BARLEY CONDITION

- Excellent 13 13 18 N/A

- Good 59 59 65 N/A

- Fair 22 23 13 N/A

- Poor 5 4 3 N/A

- Very Poor 1 1 1 N/A

OATS CONDITION

- Excellent 8 10 18 N/A

- Good 44 45 59 N/A

- Fair 23 21 17 N/A

- Poor 10 9 5 N/A

- Very Poor 15 15 1 N/A

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION

- Excellent 7 8 10 N/A

- Good 32 33 47 N/A

- Fair 23 23 28 N/A

- Poor 17 16 11 N/A

- Very Poor 21 20 4 N/A

COTTON SQUARING 95 90 98 96

COTTON SETTING BOLLS 79 62 82 74

COTTON BOLLS OPEN 9 NA 8 8

CORN SILKING 93 83 97 93

CORN DOUGHING 32 18 49 38

CORN DENTED 7 4 14 10

SOYBEANS BLOOMING 87 77 92 89

SOYBEANS SETTING PODS 51 34 69 63

RICE HEADED 58 47 76 65

WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED 85 81 87 91

SPRING WHEAT HEADED 96 90 99 100

SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED 6 NA 17 24

SORGHUM HEADED 52 42 68 63

SORGHUM COLORING 29 28 28 30

SORGHUM MATURE 24 23 19 21

PEANUTS PEGGING 87 80 91 89

BARLEY HEADED 96 92 99 99

BARLEY HARVESTED 2 NA 13 23

OATS HARVESTED 50 30 68 63

DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Aug 8

For the week ending Aug 4, in thousand metric tons. Includes

waterway shipments to Canada.

Grain -------week ending------- current previous

Aug 4 Jul 28 last mkt yr mkt yr

year to date to date

Wheat 686.9 441.3 404.2 5,697.7 4,516.1

Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Oats 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.6 0.3

Barley 0.0 0.0 0.2 33.2 4.4

Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.6

Corn 806.4 826.3 1,137.0 42,151.5 44,055.9

Sorghum 70.1 53.8 143.2 3,557.2 3,957.1

Soybeans 153.6 162.0 201.9 39,532.6 38,449.3

Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 1,717.0 1,484.4 1,886.9 90,973.8 90,983.8

Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.

September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday as markets mirrored action in the US stock market and also noted the poor conditions in the US Great Plains. S&P downgraded the US debt and there are a lot of economic growth concerns and these caused a huge sell off in stocks, and this spilled over into commodities. However, commodities held better as the fundamentals are more positive, especially on the supply side and with the weather. Positive export demand news is coming back to the US as the US price is finally getting competitive with Russia. Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest. Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas. Charts show that the trends are turning down after the price action yesterday.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation. Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Egypt bought 60,000 tons of Russian Wheat overnight.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 633, 606, and 605 September. Support is at 642, 640, and 620 September, with resistance at 658, 664, and 666 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 750, 732, and 725 September, with resistance at 789, 810, and 832 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 785, 777, and 770 September, and resistance is at 817, 830, and 836 September.

RICE

General Comments: Prices were a little lower again yesterday in sympathy with the selling in Corn and other agricultural markets and in sympathy with the massive selling seen in world equities markets in response to the debt downgrade by S&P. The market held very well once again, but the harvest is going on near the Gulf Coast is keeping the buyers cautious. Buyers will also be cautious after USDA raised crop conditions overnight. Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume. The weather could moderate in the Mid South later this week, but the region will not get a lot of rain. Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states. No milling yield reports have been heard yet. Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states. Cash markets are reported to be firm in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies. New crop bids have also been firm. Mixed reports about cash markets have been heard in Texas. The charts have a weak overall appearance, but futures are in a range for the short term, and price action late last week implies that the market knows it has big crop losses to contend with here in the US.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week. Temperatures will average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1616, 1608, and 1593 September, and resistance is at 1646, 1657, and 1669 September.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation tied to the massive liquidation in the world stock markets and the credit rating change made by S&P over the weekend against buying tied to crop losses here in the US. Traders are also worried about world growth prospects after the recent action in financial markets. Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be. Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for central and eastern areas this week. Cooler temperatures will move into southern areas later in the week. There have been more reports of yield loss, but most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the recent hot weather as crop color remains good. Analysts appear less enthused about production potential as production estimates are just below 13.1 billion bushels. We feel that production could be about 13.07 billion bushels. Hot conditions should remain in the south, and it should be drier, but some forecasts are calling for some showers in these areas as well. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress. However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 671, 662, and 648 September, and resistance is at 679, 682, and 684 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 320 September. Support is at 327, 321, and 313 September, and resistance is at 340, 346, and 350 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on speculative profit taking tied to the massive liquidation in world stock markets and the debt downgrade by S&P, and on forecasts for more moderate growing conditions this week in the Midwest. Traders are worried about world growth prospects as well. Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest last week has aided in crop development, and better conditions are starting to move south. Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers and storms in most areas this week. Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest. August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now. Gulf basis levels were unchanged. Charts show that trends are turning down with the better US weather.

Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Unknown destinations bought 25,000 tons of US Soybean Oil overnight.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1313 and 1275 September. Support is at 1297, 1292, and 1285 September, and resistance is at 1314, 1322, and 1332 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 340.00 September. Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 330.00 September, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 349.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5340 September. Support is at 5370, 5320, and 5260 September, with resistance at 5410, 5480, and 5530 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was lower on speculative long liquidation tied to massive selling in world stock markets. This caused big speculative selling in Chicago and Canola went down in sympathy. Commercials were scale down buyers. Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop. Most crops appear to be in good condition. It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast. European conditions are good. Swathing has started in Saskatchewan. Palm Oil was sharply lower today as it reacted to Chicago price action and the world economic fears and the US debt downgrade. Traders expect the current drier weather patterns in Malaysia to slow production in coming weeks.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 532.00 November. Support is at 530.00, 528.00, and 511.00 November, with resistance at 551.00, 553.00, and 560.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2970 and 2920 October. Support is at 2990, 2975, and 2960 October, with resistance at 3005, 3020, and 3060 October.

Midwest Weather: More showers again this weekend and by the middle of next week. Temperatures will average near normal.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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