Markets

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS Jack Scoville

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed mixed Friday, with Chicago a little lower and Kansas City a little higher and Minneapolis on both sides of unchanged. Hurting Wheat was the big selling by funds in response to the European economic problems and harvest progress. The US harvest is well underway, with harvesters making rapid progress in the central and southern Great Plains. Progress has been slower in Kansas due to showers there. The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries continue to provide support. Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops has been a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. More rain was seen in the Dakotas and Minnesota yesterday. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue. More rain is forecast for Europe in the next few days. Charts show that the trends are down.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation early this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation through the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady to firm for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Saudi Arabia bought 330,000 tons of US and European What over the weekend.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 654 July. Support is at 664, 660, and 647 July, with resistance at 684, 691, and 701 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 790, 775, and 732 July, with resistance at 810, 828, and 845 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 835 and 685 July. Support is at 888, 884, and 878 July, and resistance is at 918, 932, and 965 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011

: Reportable Positions

:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

: Producer/Merchant : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading

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WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)

CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 577,958

: Positions

: 55,787 205,867 179,320 16,183 45,600 64,516 56,958 58,519 27,621 27,918 96,191

: Changes from: June 7, 2011

: -1,231 -10,708 2,342 -446 -2,852 -2,004 10,892 -2,003 2,689 -830 -3,050

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

: 9.7 35.6 31.0 2.8 7.9 11.2 9.9 10.1 4.8 4.8 16.6

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 451

: 75 102 20 8 25 59 72 73 89 77 127

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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011

: Reportable Positions

:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

: Producer/Merchant : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading

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WHEAT - KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)

CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 185,925

: Positions

: 42,341 102,684 26,956 6,624 11,059 45,369 5,449 9,459 10,860 5,700 15,088

: Changes from: June 7, 2011

: -502 -3,217 117 271 1,033 190 -131 -1,387 -664 131 203

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

: 22.8 55.2 14.5 3.6 5.9 24.4 2.9 5.1 5.8 3.1 8.1

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 192

: 52 72 13 . 8 38 8 20 22 20 35

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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011

: Reportable Positions

:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

: Producer/Merchant : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading

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WHEAT - MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)

CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 61,663

: Positions

: 16,896 40,643 1,106 0 0 15,818 324 1,634 5,240 892 4,324

: Changes from: June 7, 2011

: 3,052 1,506 -223 0 -4 -197 301 558 -858 66 1,486

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

: 27.4 65.9 1.8 0.0 0.0 25.7 0.5 2.7 8.5 1.4 7.0

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77

: 26 27 4 0 . 17 . 6 13 5 11

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RICE

General Comments: Prices were lower again Friday on speculative selling tied to weakness seen in most commodities markets and the European economic issues. Some short covering brought futures off of the lows late in the session. World production and prices remain a concern, and those prices have been soft, although have been a little firmer in Asia in the last week. Weather and poor growing conditions in the US remain important, but overall crop ratings improved last week to take away some of the bullish influence. Producers continue to work, but it has turned hot and dry in many areas. Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions to continue into the week, but some beneficial precipitation is possible about midweek. Texas crops appear to be mostly fair, but overall crops showed good improvement. It has been very dry there, so irrigation is being used. Chart trends are down for the short term.

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1390, 1385, and 1383 July, and resistance is at 1405, 1427, and 1435 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011

: Reportable Positions

:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

: Producer/Merchant : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading

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ROUGH RICE - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)

CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 21,823

: Positions

: 4,050 15,709 4,250 0 0 3,601 728 13 2,493 1,391 2,471

: Changes from: June 7, 2011

: -0 -1,037 33 0 0 -189 0 0 -559 118 221

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

: 18.6 72.0 19.5 0.0 0.0 16.5 3.3 0.1 11.4 6.4 11.3

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 99

: 18 24 11 0 0 19 4 . 21 14 17

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CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was mostly higher and Oats were lower Friday on weather and fund selling, but there was a lot of late short covering, especially in the Corn. Much of the selling was in response to the economic problems seen in Europe. Basis levels have turned weaker in late week trading, but Gulf basis levels remain stable. Warm and drier are likely for much of this week, but precipitation is possible about midweek. Overall conditions appear to be improving. Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east and many farmers may now look to plant other crops such as Soybeans. Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats development, but warmer weather this week will allow for progress. Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season. September could be the strongest month if weather remains cool and progress remains slow as crop progress is late now. Crops near and south of Chicago look mostly good but very late. There are a lot of holes in fields where water had been standing. Supplies could be very tight by September. Trends are down for now.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to weak in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 675 and 618 July. Support is at 692, 659, and 654 July, and resistance is at 727, 730, and 737 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 350, 321, and 304 July. Support is at 354, 350, and 336 July, and resistance is at 361, 371, and 379 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011

: Reportable Positions

:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

: Producer/Merchant : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading

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CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)

CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,224,832

: Positions

: 335,688 870,958 293,848 54,124 170,719 362,525 26,104 262,327 93,670 60,015 488,230

: Changes from: June 7, 2011

: -3,798 -2,830 1,786 -49 14,512 15,001 -2,332 7,199 -3,676 7,380 21,180

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

: 15.1 39.1 13.2 2.4 7.7 16.3 1.2 11.8 4.2 2.7 21.9

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 953

: 271 394 19 10 26 144 31 95 162 137 240

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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011

: Reportable Positions

:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

: Producer/Merchant : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading

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OATS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)

CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 14,355

: Positions

: 4,108 11,567 2,259 0 135 3,571 113 2 109 503 1,029

: Changes from: June 7, 2011

: 23 681 -64 0 0 723 -107 -59 -260 42 -307

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

: 28.6 80.6 15.7 0.0 0.9 24.9 0.8 0.0 0.8 3.5 7.2

: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 44

: 11 13 5 0 . 13 . . . 5 5

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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 14, 2011

: Reportable Positions

:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

: Producer/Merchant : : :

: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables

: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading

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CBT ETHANOL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)

CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 9,652

: Positions

: 7,577 7,450 34 766 242 65 0 298 494 118 392

: Changes from: June 7, 2011

: 956 421 34 273 -47 65 -87 -3 -426 0 25

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader

: 78.5 77.2 0.4 7.9 2.5 0.7 0.0 3.1 5.1 1.2 4.1

: Number of Traders in Each Category &nbsp

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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