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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

DJ USDA Report: Summary For June Acreage, Quarterly Grain Stocks

The reports are bearish to Corn and it is called liomit down. The other markets are called lowr in sympathy with Corn.

KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--The following table is provided as a service to Dow

Jones Newswires subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of

Agriculture's acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports.

The reports were released Thursday morning. Estimates are in millions of

acres for the 2011 U.S. acreage report and in billions of bushels for U.S.

grain and soybean stocks as of June 1.

U.S. Acreage

USDA USDA USDA

Planting Harvest March 31 2010

Thursday Thursday Average Range Plantings Seedings

Corn 92.3 84.9 90.776 89.500-91.500 92.178 88.192

Soybeans 75.2 74.3 76.476 75.500-77.190 76.609 77.404

Spring Wheat 13.6 32.3 13.324 12.500-14.000 14.427 13.698

Durum 1.698 1.647 1.982 1.310-2.300 2.365 2.570

All Wheat 56.4 47.2 56.607 55.000-57.600 58.021 53.603

Cotton 13.73 NA 12.69 12.00-13.25 12.57 10.97

Rice 2.676 2.649 3.018 3.636

Oats 2.587 0.934 2.839 3.138

Sorghum 5.345 4.588 5.645 5.404

Barley 2.815 2.480 2.952 2.872

U.S. Grain Stocks

2011 Mar 1 2010 June 1

USDA USDA USDA

Thursday Average Range Stocks Stocks

Corn 3.670 3.324 2.998-3.515 6.523 4.310

Soybeans 0.619 0.597 0.549-0.632 1.249 0.571

Wheat 0.861 0.825 0.791-0.878 1.425 0.976

Durum 0.035 0.056 0.034

Rice 71.373 57.408 120.615

Sorghum 0.080 0.171 0.087

Oats 0.067 0.080 0.086

Barley 0.089 0.115 0.138

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 30

For the week ended Jun 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1.

wk's net chg total

in commitments commitments undlvd sales

this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr

wheat 545.1 0.0 8300.3 6271.7 6363.0 0.0

corn 691.7 242.6 45200.7 48706.5 8686.1 4833.1

soybeans -335.6 458.1 41489.2 39286.2 3516.7 7490.1

soymeal 108.3 0.0 7281.7 8947.4 1185.1 277.0

soyoil 23.6 0.0 1257.2 1347.2 142.5 4.5

upland cotton -135.3 35.2 14331.9 12526.3 1653.1 5324.7

pima cotton 3.4 0.5 527.3 679.7 59.3 322.3

sorghum 27.2 0.0 3340.0 3366.6 601.5 59.3

barley 0.0 0.0 1.9 16.9 0.1 0.0

rice 66.6 0.0 3804.6 3681.5 492.0 9.1

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed mostly higher yesterday, but made the highs of the day early in the session as some speculative profit taking and new selling was noted as the day moved on. Buying seemed to be mostly short covering before the USDA reports today. The flooding that could cause lost production in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies supported buying. Ideas are that the Russians are going to take a majority of the business for now as they offer at lower prices and that conditions are better in Europe were the primary negatives, but were considered already part of the price. The world economic issues add to demand questions, but traders were less worried about Europe than previously as the Greeks began to pass laws to put their economy in order. The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries continue to provide support. Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops has been a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. More rain was seen in the Dakotas and Minnesota over the weekend. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue. Charts show that the trends are turning mixed.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation through this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 662, 642, and 630 September, with resistance at 691, 698, and 714 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 745, 741, and 726 September, with resistance at 780, 810, and 814 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 834, 821, and 800 September, and resistance is at 860, 877, and 894 September.

RICE

General Comments: Prices were higher much of yesterday along with strength in the other grains markets, but fell late on some speculative selling. Traders were looking forward to the USDA reports this morning and did not expect bullish quarterly stocks data even though planted area estimates could provide reason to buy. Traders noted firmer cash market prices and an uptick in demand in the country here in the US. World prices have been a little firmer in Asia, mostly for political reasons. Many in Thailand are holding back to see what happens in the elections next month, and Vietnam is now ready to hold back stocks from the market to help prices there. US crop conditions remain uneven. Chart trends are mostly down for the short term.

Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1341, 1336, and 1290 July, and resistance is at 1369, 1383, and 1385 July.

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1423, 1399, and 1370 September, and resistance is at 1460, 1472, and 1500 September.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats were mixed yesterday as traders got ready for the USDA reports and the first July deliveries today. July corn was the strongest on ideas of very tight cash markets. Highs were made early in the session, then more speculative long liquidation appeared as traders got ready for the reports. Another cold night was seen in Brazil and Corn got hurt again. Sources tell us that the full extent of the damage and loss will not be known for another week. Forecasts for warmer and drier weather to develop this weekend and into the holiday weekend were negative, but temperatures are expected to turn very cold again early next week. Reports of strong domestic demand and export demand were noted after the recent big price break, and basis levels have been firm, but have turned more stable in the country now. Basis levels are mostly steady. Supplies could be very tight by September. Trends are turning mixed.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 672, 663, and 638 September, and resistance is at 692, 697, and 710 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 347, 338, and 331 September, and resistance is at 358, 364, and 369 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed mixed yesterday, but Soybean Oil was higher again as Crude Oil rallied. Traders were mostly getting ready for all the reports that were released this morning. Forecasts for better weather in the Midwest this week and next were negative. Forecasts call for warmer and drier weather this weekend in the Midwest, and this weather will help improve crop conditions that showed deterioration. Demand remains seasonally weak, but should start to firm up soon as South America finishes its selling. Cash markets in the interior US remain strong. Gulf basis levels were steady. Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice. Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative. South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow. Charts show that trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Midwest basis levels were steady.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1321, 1304, and 1294 August, and resistance is at 1344, 1355, and 1370 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 340.00, 333.00, and 328.00 August, and resistance is at 348.00, 353.00, and 355.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5545, 5460, and 5445 August, with resistance at 5640, 5680, and 5690 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was higher again on price strength in Chicago and Europe. Ideas of less demand hurt the rally as domestic crushers are not buying due to weak crush margins. Elevators were scale up sellers. Planting progress remains very slow in Canada. European conditions are better, and Canadian farmers are now said to be done with planting. Palm Oil was lower today before the USDA reports. Ideas of big production went against ideas of increasing demand, and the demand won today. Positive export data from private sources provided support. There were wire reports that Pakistan could buy 180,000 tons of Palm Oil for July. Trends remain down.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 566.00, 558.00, and 556.00 November, with resistance at 574.00, 580.00, and 589.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3100 September. Support is at 3095, 3040, and 3000 September, with resistance at 3150, 3185, and 3200 September.

Midwest Weather: Dry through the weekend. Temperatures will average near normal today and above normal late in the week.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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