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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 16

For the week ended Jun 9, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1.

wk's net chg total

in commitments commitments undlvd sales

this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr

wheat 455.5 0.0 7093.8 5132.7 6301.0 0.0

corn 295.8 598.9 44098.2 46933.5 9406.6 4470.2

soybeans 179.4 6.0 41856.9 38714.1 4223.2 6796.0

soymeal 80.1 0.0 7163.8 8840.6 1291.6 249.5

soyoil 10.7 0.0 1227.6 1291.0 136.8 4.5

upland cotton 10.2 37.4 14468.4 12325.7 2131.1 5322.6

pima cotton 0.1 1.8 523.7 676.7 64.6 320.7

sorghum 2.8 0.0 3233.4 3326.9 608.9 59.3

barley 0.8 0.0 1.9 16.9 1.6 0.0

rice 13.2 5.9 3661.5 3590.0 527.7 9.1

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed lower again yesterday in response to reports of beneficial rains in Europe and ideas of strong offers from Russia. Also hurting Wheat was the big selling by funds in response to the European economic problems and more extreme weakness seen in Corn futures. The European issues supported a big rally in the US Dollar. The US harvest is well underway, with harvesters making rapid progress in the central and southern Great Plains. Progress has been slower in Kansas due to showers there. The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries continue to provide support. Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops has been a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. More rain was seen in the Dakotas and Minnesota yesterday. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue. More rain is forecast for Europe in the next few days. Charts show that the trends are down.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation Friday and this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady to firm for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 696, 691, and 654 July. Support is at 701, 691, and 684 July, with resistance at 723, 731, and 737 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 802 July. Support is at 810, 775, and 732 July, with resistance at 828, 845, and 854 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 835 and 685 July. Support is at 932, 918, and 894 July, and resistance is at 965, 972, and 978 July.

RICE

General Comments: Prices were lower again yesterday on speculative selling tied to weakness seen in most commodities markets. Bad economic news from Europe hurt all grains and oilseeds markets yesterday, and Rice was no exception. World production and prices remain a concern, and those prices have been soft. Weather and poor growing conditions in the US remain important, but overall crop ratings improved last week to take away some of the bullish influence. Producers continue to work, but it has turned hot and dry in many areas. Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions to continue into the weekend. Some switching can be expected in the Mid South to Soybeans. Texas crops appear to be mostly fair, but overall crops showed good improvement. It has been very dry there, so irrigation is being used. Chart trends are down for the short term.

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1390 July. Support is at 1405, 1390, and 1383 July, and resistance is at 1440, 1467, and 1490 July.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on weather and USDA progress and fund selling seen in most commodities yesterday. July traded limit down for a while but could not close there as the liquidation eased in the final few minutes. Much of the selling was in response to a sharply higher US Dollar and the economic problems seen in Europe. Some initial support was seen yesterday after the Senate voted to keep ethanol blending subsidies intact. Basis levels remain firm in the interior, so the lack of supplies and the domestic demand seem important. Gulf basis levels remain stable with no particular reports of strong demand so far this week. Warm and drier are likely for this weekend, although showers and storms are possible over the next couple of days. Overall conditions appear to be improving. Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east and many farmers may now look to plant other crops such as Soybeans. Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats development, but warmer weather this week will allow for progress. Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season. September could be the strongest month if weather remains cool and progress remains slow. Supplies could be very tight by then. Trends are down for now.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to firm in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 703, 675, and 618 July. Support is at 726, 723, and 692 July, and resistance is at 730, 737, and 743 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 365, 360, and 321 July. Support is at 361, 358, and 354 July, and resistance is at 371, 379, and 383 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products closed a little higher yesterday despite the stronger US Dollar and weakness in most commodities markets. Some late short covering was noted by participants to push the market higher. Much of the selling seen earlier in the session seemed related to weakness in corn futures and the outside markets. The weather for this weekend looks warmer and drier for most growing areas. However, some rains should hit most Midwest growing areas today. Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice. Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, and Chinese buyers appear quiet right now. South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow. Charts show that trends are down.

Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Midwest basis levels were steady to firm. China said it expects to buy 5.57 million tons orf Soybeans in world markets this month.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1339 and 1299 July. Support is at 1353, 1342, and 1313 July, and resistance is at 1377, 1380, and 1390 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 355.00, 349.00, and 342.00July. Support is at 351.00, 349.00, and 345.00 July, and resistance is at 364.00, 366.00, and 368.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5600 and 5430 July. Support is at 5640, 5620, and 5560 July, with resistance at 5740, 5770, and 5800 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday as liquidation selling tied to price action in Chicago ran into new commercial demand. Demand seems to have dried up. Planting progress remains very slow in Canada. Rains are forecast for Europe again this week to improve things there. France and England remain dry. A slow planting pace remains the primary support here. Palm Oil was lower on weakness in outside markets. Positive export data from private sources provided support as did ideas of increasing demand for the short term. Weakness in Chicago is hurting price action here. Trends are down. SGS estimated exports so far this month at 699,674 tons, from 601,984 tons last month. ITK estimated exports so far at 671,314 tons, from 533,419 tons last month.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 570.00, 553.00, and 536.00 July. Support is at 580.00, 569.00, and 564.00 July, with resistance at 600.00, 603.00, and 606.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3210, 3200, and 3185 September, with resistance at 3330, 3395, and 3410 September.

Midwest Weather: Showers today, then scattered showers over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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