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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

U.S. Weekly Crop Progress Highlights - USDA

WASHINGTON, May 31 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture

Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):

Week ended 05/29/11 05/22/11 05/29/10 5-year

CORN CONDITION

- Excellent 10 N/A 15 N/A

- Good 53 N/A 61 N/A

- Fair 31 N/A 20 N/A

- Poor 4 N/A 3 N/A

- Very Poor 2 N/A 1 N/A

RICE CONDITION

- Excellent 14 11 17 N/A

- Good 39 38 57 N/A

- Fair 35 37 23 N/A

- Poor 9 12 3 N/A

- Very Poor 3 2 0 N/A

WINTER WHEAT CONDITION

- Excellent 7 6 14 N/A

- Good 26 26 51 N/A

- Fair 23 23 26 N/A

- Poor 21 21 7 N/A

- Very Poor 23 24 2 N/A

OATS CONDITION

- Excellent 8 9 15 N/A

- Good 48 47 63 N/A

- Fair 23 22 18 N/A

- Poor 7 7 3 N/A

- Very Poor 14 15 1 N/A

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION

- Excellent 12 10 12 N/A

- Good 43 44 57 N/A

- Fair 24 24 24 N/A

- Poor 12 13 6 N/A

- Very Poor 9 9 1 N/A

COTTON PLANTED 73 57 77 76

CORN PLANTED 86 79 97 95

CORN EMERGED 66 45 83 78

SOYBEANS PLANTED 51 41 71 71

SOYBEANS EMERGED 27 12 43 39

RICE PLANTED 94 84 98 95

RICE EMERGED 77 61 88 86

WINTER WHEAT HEADED 72 62 73 76

SPRING WHEAT PLANTED 68 54 94 95

SPRING WHEAT EMERGED 40 24 81 81

SORGHUM PLANTED 46 40 46 49

PEANUTS PLANTED 77 60 78 74

SUGARBEETS PLANTED 92 86 100 99

SUNFLOWERS PLANTED 94 84 98 95

BARLEY PLANTED 72 57 96 95

BARLEY EMERGED 39 27 77 77

OATS PLANTED 89 80 98 99

OATS EMERGED 74 61 93 93

OATS HEADED 27 NA 29 28

DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-May 31

For the week ending May 26, in thousand metric tons. Includes

waterway shipments to Canada.

Grain -------week ending------- current previous

May 26 May 19 last mkt yr mkt yr

year to date to date

Wheat 713.4 822.7 342.2 34,108.4 23,116.8

Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Oats 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 2.4

Barley 0.5 2.0 0.6 119.7 92.3

Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.1 48.2

Corn 905.3 914.8 1,246.9 33,030.4 34,172.6

Sorghum 72.3 76.0 40.7 2,913.7 3,404.9

Soybeans 280.9 245.8 159.2 37,855.5 36,457.6

Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 1,972.5 2,061.3 1,789.7 108,063.0 97,294.8

Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.

September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed sharply lower yesterday on news that Russia will start exports on July 1. Russia is usually the cheapest seller in the world, so any sales from them should have a negative effect on prices. The drought in Texas and Oklahoma and other weather worries around the world continue to provide support. Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops have been going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops is becoming a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue. Northern and eastern Great Plains areas should also turn drier and warmer this week as the patterns seems to shift, but will not see completely dry weather. Crops in the southwestern Great Plains remain under high levels of stress, and crop condition ratings continue to move lower. Spring Wheat planting progress is now falling far behind, but farmers will get chances this week to get some planting done. Most of the eastern parts of the Canadian Prairies are just as bad, although some areas to the west are in better shape. Weather forecasts call for warmer and drier weather in the Mid South and southern Midwest which should help the Wheat in those areas at least a little bit. World weather is not good for production, either. Yield losses are expected in France, England, and Germany from drought. Canada remains wet and cold, although some of the western areas are now dry and warm enough to plant. Charts show that the trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation Friday. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see rains, especially in the south, on Friday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 772, 766, and 748 July, with resistance at 800, 804, and 807 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 898, 887, and 862 July, with resistance at 932, 958, and 962 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 1012, 1004, and 998 July, and resistance is at 1029, 1078, and 1090 July.

RICE

General Comments : Prices were a little lower yesterday along with the other grains and oilseeds. But, weather remains an issue and more talk of poor crop quality and poor growing conditions are heard everywhere in the US The Mid South is recovering from serious flooding that has damaged crops already planted and forced planting delays for farmers in the region. Big rains last week created some new flooding and kept many farmers out of the fields. However, it looks much better this week, so producers will get at least some relief. Forecasts call for warm and dry conditions. Some switching can be expected in the Mid South to Soybeans. Some farmers have been able to return to the fields, but farms near rivers might still be under water. Demand remains a problem, and some reports indicate that Milled Rice demand is slow. However, cash markets in growing areas have been firming up in the last week or two as there is not much offer. Chart trends turned mixed again last week.

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will average above normal. Iraq bought 132,000 tons of rice from Thailand and Uruguay, but none from the US.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1490, 1458, and 1440 July, and resistance is at 1532, 1555, and 1581 July.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn was lower on Wheat price action and better Midwest weather, but Oats were higher on more bad weather for the northern Midwest and Canada. There has been a big change in the weather now, and warm and drier, but not dry conditions are likely for most areas all week and into the weekend. Basis levels remain firm in the interior, so the lack of supplies and the domestic demand seem important. Gulf basis levels remain stable. Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east as rains return for much of this week. Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats planting. Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the rest of US growing season. Weather remains bad in the southern Great Plains and Wheat has been stressed. Weather is dry for the Winter Corn crop in Mato Grosso in Brazil, and yield losses are expected.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to firm in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 743, 737, and 731 July, and resistance is at 765, 775, and 777 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 389, 420, and 421 July. Support is at 383, 375, and 374 July, and resistance is at 395, 398, and 410 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products closed a little lower yesterday on some talk of better weather for planting Soybeans this week and outside markets action. A stronger US Dollar provided some support. The bad weather in eastern areas is hurting Soybeans planting progress as well as that of Corn, and recent rains in the Mid South are not allowing farmers to plant anything there. However, the weather for this week and this weekend looks warm and dry for most growing areas and there should be a lot of fieldwork that gets done. Up side price potential would appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice. Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, but more talk of Chinese interest in buying Soybeans create fundamental support. Most of the Soybeans would be bought from South America, but at least some demand talk is starting. South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow. Charts show that trends are sideways for the short term.

Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Midwest basis levels were steady to firm.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1368, 1365, and 1360 July, and resistance is at 1396, 1400, and 1402 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 349.00, 241.00, and 340.00 July. Support is at 352.00, 349.00, and 345.00 July, and resistance is at 361.00, 364.00, and 366.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5800, 5770, and 5720 July, with resistance at 5890, 5900, and 5940 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was mixed yesterday on weather problems and Chicago price action. Many areas got precipitation over the weekend, and farmers have been forced from the field again. Thiw week looks better, but showers and rains are posible in southern areas. Funds were on both sides of the market. Cash market demand is said to be steady from domestic channels. Farm selling was quiet. Traders are watching Europe as well as the Rapeseed crops there are suffering from dry weather. Palm Oil was lower again today on improved US weather and Chicago price action. Traders expect generall strong prices due to ideas ofstrong exports, but futures appear to be in a correction mode.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 632.00 July. Support is at 583.00, 580.00, and 569.00 July, with resistance at 592.00, 606.00, and 612.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3385, 3375, and 3750 August, with resistance at 3430, 3455, and 3465 August.

Midwest Weather: Showers in central and northern areas today and about Thursday. Temperatures will average above normal.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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