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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 26

For the week ended May 19, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and

and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and

soyoil Oct 1.

wk's net chg total

in commitments commitments undlvd sales

this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr

wheat -28.3 460.6 35377.5 22666.3 3288.1 4006.7

corn 726.7 52.9 43010.5 44625.5 11043.7 3612.0

soybeans 163.2 -6.1 41474.5 38294.8 4421.9 6716.9

soymeal 137.5 5.3 6988.3 8591.4 1372.3 195.5

soyoil 0.5 0.0 1177.6 1187.9 106.5 4.5

upland cotton -33.0 21.8 14647.3 11203.2 2941.1 5288.1

pima cotton 0.0 0.0 522.3 673.3 55.9 318.9

sorghum 82.2 0.0 3135.4 3203.5 654.9 23.3

barley 0.0 0.0 101.1 94.7 3.6 0.0

rice 59.0 0.5 3471.7 3496.8 500.1 2.4

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday as the drought in Texas and Oklahoma continues and on forecasts that offer little hope for relief along with other weather worries around the world. Midwest and Mid South Wheat crops are also going downhill due to too much rain, and planting of Spring Wheat crops is becoming a big problem in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue. Northern and eastern Great Plains areas could get more rains. Crops in the southwestern Great Plains remain under high levels of stress, and crop condition ratings continue to move lower. Spring Wheat planting progress is now falling far behind with little chance to catch up as rains are expected again through this weekend. Most of the eastern parts of the Canadian Prairies are just as bad, although some areas to the west are in better shape. Weather forecasts continue to call for wet conditions in the southern Midwest and Mid South through this weekend to potentially hurt Soft Red Winter Wheat. World weather is not good for production, either. Yield losses are now expected in France, England, and Germany. Canada remains wet and cold, although some of the western areas are now dry and warm enough to plant. Charts show that the trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but central and northern areas should get precipitation through the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see rains, especially in the east. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 778, 766, and 748 July, with resistance at 810, 821, and 824 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 907, 887, and 884 July, with resistance at 932, 945, and 947 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1121. Support is at 986, 981, and 977 July, and resistance is at 998, 1004, and 1012 July.

RICE

General Comments: Prices were a little higher again yesterday in consolidation trading. Big rains have been reported in the Mid South again over the last few days and are continuing today. The Mid South is recovering from serious flooding that has damaged crops already planted and forced planting delays for farmers in the region. Big rains over the weekend and again this week created some new flooding and will keep many farmers out of the fields this week. Some switching can be expected in the Mid South to Soybeans if the Rice does not get planted soon. Some farmers have been able to return to the fields, but farms near rivers might still be under water. Chart trends turned up again this week

Overnight News: Chances for showers this week in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will average above normal. . India said that it will not allow Rice exports for now. The supplies are there but the government is working out a new food security law and want so make sure the supplies are in place to keep food prices very cheap there.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1530 and 1575 July. Support is at 1490, 1458, and 1440 July, and resistance is at 1532, 1555, and 1581 July

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher on ideas of increasing demand and continued bad weather in the Midwest. Forecasts for bad weather to continue in the Midwest provided some support as the weather is now forecast to stay bad through at least the weekend. Basis levels remain firm in the interior, so the lack of supplies and the domestic demand seem important. Gulf basis levels remain stable. Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east as rains return for much of this week. Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats planting. Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the US growing season. Weather remains bad in the southern Great Plains and Wheat has been stressed. Weather is dry for the Winter Corn crop in Mato Grosso in Brazil, and yield losses are expected.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to firm in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 731, 727, and 723 July, and resistance is at 757, 765, and 775 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 358, and 354 July, and resistance is at 374, 375, and 382 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher along with strength in Crude Oil and on some ideas that the weather issues will hurt Soybeans planted area, but Soybean meal closed a little lower. The bad weather in eastern areas is hurting Soybeans planting progress as well as that of Corn, and current rains in the Mid South are not allowing farmers to plant anything there. Up side price potential would appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice. Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, but more talk of Chinese interest in buying Soybeans create fundamental support. Most of the Soybeans would be bought from South America, but at least some demand talk is starting. South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow. Charts show that trends are turning up for the short term.

Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Midwest basis levels were steady to firm.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1365, 1360, and 1355 July, and resistance is at 1389, 1396, and 1400 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 355.00, 351.00, and 349.00 July, and resistance is at 364.00, 366.00, and 368.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5770, 5720, and 5690 July, with resistance at 5860, 5900, and 5940 July.

DJ US Census Fats And Oils Crush: Soybeans-May 26

In short tons, except oil in thousand pounds at mills.

Cumulative in million short tons, except oil in billion

pounds at mills. Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

-Cumulative-

(in billions)

Oct 10- Oct 09-

Apr 11 Mar 11 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 10

crushings 3,839,487 4,208,023 4,096,412 30.364 33.571

mill stocks 2,799,013 3,098,834 2,414,520 na na

meal production 2,873,059 3,111,911 2,983,473 22.494 24.490

meal stocks 403,894 294,551 265,352 na na

hull meal prod 239,695 259,694 230,496 1.814 1.871

hull meal stks 38,982 30,585 30,837 na na

meal/hull stocks 442,876 325,136 296,189 na na

oil production 1,504,598 1,623,774 1,519,237 11.652 12.364

oil stocks 1,500,011 1,514,838 1,550,647 na na

soyoil yield/lb 11.76 11.58 11.13 na na

-preliminary mill warehouse stocks-

soyoil 3,317,681 3,317,681 3,353,714 na na

-in bushels-

crushings 127,981,620 140,266,031 136,545,701 1,012.139 1,119.020

mill stocks 93,299,500 103,293,434 80,483,195 na na

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday on weather problems. Many areas got precipitation over the weekend, and farmers have been forced from the field again as the rains continue this week. More rain is expected through this weekend, especially in Eastern areas. Funds were the best buyers. Cash market demand is said to be steady from domestic channels. Farm selling was quiet. Traders are watching Europe as well as the Rapeseed crops there are suffering from dry weather. Palm Oil was higher again today on demand ideas and Chicago price action.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 598.00 and 632.00 July. Support is at 580.00, 571.00, and 566.00 July, with resistance at 592.00, 600.00, and 606.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3510 August. Support is at 3385, 3375, and 3315 August, with resistance at 3430, 3440, and 3465 August.

Midwest Weather: Showers and storms in all areas through this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal this week and above normal this weekend.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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