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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 19 For the week ended May 12, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and soyoil Oct 1. wk's net chg total in commitments commitments undlvd sales this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr wheat 126.7 672.2 35406.3 22517.6 4103.3 3546.1 corn 843.2 308.5 42283.8 43594.7 11270.8 3559.1 soybeans 166.1 0.1 41311.4 38119.3 4670.6 6723.0 soymeal 10.0 4.2 6850.8 8544.0 1403.0 190.2 soyoil 2.6 0.0 1177.1 1174.9 110.9 4.5 upland cotton -30.5 21.9 14680.2 10961.1 3224.3 5266.2 pima cotton 1.3 0.0 522.3 672.0 91.3 318.9 sorghum 23.1 0.0 3053.3 3211.6 643.5 23.3 barley 0.4 0.0 101.1 94.7 3.6 0.0 rice 48.8 1.6 3412.8 3451.4 548.1 1.9

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed sharply higher yesterday on the drought in Texas and Oklahoma and on forecasts that offer little hope for relief along with other weather worries around the world, and on fund buying seen in many commodities markets. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue. Northern and eastern Great Plains areas could get more rains. Many areas will see more moderate temperatures through the weekend after a cold start to the week. It should turn hot again in Texas and Oklahoma. Crops in the southwestern Great Plains remain under high levels of stress, and crop condition ratings continue to move lower. Spring Wheat planting progress is now falling behind with little chance to catch up as rains are expected again this week. Weather forecasts continue to call for wet conditions in the southern Midwest and Mid South later this week to potentially hurt Soft Red Winter Wheat. World weather is not good for production, either. Yield losses are now expected in France and maybe in Germany. Canada remains wet and cold, although some of the western areas are now dry and warm enough to plant. Charts show that the trends are turning up again.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but central and northern areas should get precipitation through the weekend. Temperatures should average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions in most areas, but a few showers in the southeast. Temperatures will average above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 852 and 923 July. Support is at 810, 790, and 788 July, with resistance at 824, 843, and 865 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 962, 998, and 1008 July. Support is at 925, 915, and 907 July, with resistance at 998, 1004, and 1025 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1030 and 1121 July. Support is at 981, 977, and 965 July, and resistance is at 998, 1004, and 1025 July.

RICE

General Comments : Prices were limit up yesterday as flooding continues in the south and on big speculative buying seen in most commodities markets. Drought continues along the Gulf Coast, and producers are still forced to irrigate the crops, but rains last week were called very beneficial to those crops. The Mid South is recovering from serious flooding that has damaged crops already planted and forced planting delays for farmers in the region. Some switching can be expected in the Mid South to Soybeans if the Rice does not get planted soon. Some farmers have been able to return to the fields, but farms near rivers might still be under water. California is planting, and conditions should be good there now. USDA showed good planting progress last week, but crop condition was not strong at all. Chart trends turned up again yesterday

Overnight News: Chances for showers late this week in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will average above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1530 and 1575 July. Support is at 1440, 1425, and 1412 July, and resistance is at 1523, 1555, and 1581 July.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats were sharply higher on forecasts for bad weather to return to the Midwest and on big fund buying. There was talk that a big European fund was selling positions in Crude Oil and buying positions in Corn to liquidate in both markets. The fund must have lost a lot of money if any of that talk is true, and none of it has been confirmed. Some talk of Chinese interest in US Corn also provided some support for futures again yesterday. There is talk that the Chinese bought US old and new crop Corn last week. Corn planting is now mostly done in the western Corn Belt, but progress there will continue to be slow in the east as rains returns after a few days. Conditions will stay bad in many areas at least through the weekend. Cool and wet weather in the northern Great Plains, Canadian Prairies, and parts of the Midwest continue to delay Oats planting. Nearby Corn futures could still trade at or above $8.00 per bushel, especially if good weather is not seen during the US growing season. Weather remains bad in the southern Great Plains and Wheat has been stressed. Weather is dry for the Winter Corn crop in Mato Grosso in Brazil, and yield losses are expected.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady to firm in the Midwest.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 785 and 849 July. Support is at 723, 708, and 701 July, and resistance is at 761, 777, and 788 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 389, 420, and 421 July. Support is at 363, 358, and 354 July, and resistance is at 375, 382, and 389 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products closed sharply higher in sympathy with the grains and on big fund buying seen in most commodities markets. However, the complex seems more of a follower than a leader in the price movement right now. Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative, but more talk of Chinese interest in buying Soybeans create fundamental support. Most of the Soybeans would be bought from South America, but at least some demand talk is starting. South America has plenty of production and has been offering. US export demand has suffered, but this is a seasonal expectation anyway. US weather remains poor, and many eastern and southern areas remain too wet to plant. Most of the Midwest and parts of the Delta and Southeast should get more rains over the weekend. Temperatures should slowly moderate this weekend. Charts show that trends are turning up for the short term.

Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Midwest basis levels were steady to firm. China bought 110,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans overnight.

C hart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1395 and 1438 July. Support is at 1342, 1339, and 1332 July, and resistance is at 1381, 1387, and 1400 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 365.00 and 379.00 July. Support is at 359.00, 358.00, and 355.00 July, and resistance is at 364.00, 368.00, and 377.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3390 and 3510 July. Support is at 5690, 5635, and 5585 July, with resistance at 5770, 5860, and 5900 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday in sympathy with Chicago. Improving weather in the Canadian Prairies was negative to futures. Talk of active fieldwork in much of the Prairies was common. Funds were the best buyers. Cash market demand is said to be steady from domestic channels. Farm selling was quiet. Palm Oil was higher today on demand ideas and Chicago price action.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 598.00 and 632.00 July. Support is at 569.00, 561.00, and 557.00 July, with resistance at 580.00, 583.00, and 592.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3390 and 3510 August. Support is at 3280, 3250, and 3195 August, with resistance at 3315, 3335, and 3375 August.

Midwest Weather: Showers return to western areas later this week and to all areas this weekend. Temperatures will moderate to near normal by the end of the week and above normal this weekend.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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