MID - Equity Market Insight December 22, 2015

Tuesday, December 22, 2015, 11:11 AM, EST

  • The Dow began today with modest gains release on final GDP numbers showing the US grew at an annualized rate of 2%. Not great, but not a surprise either. Personal consumption grew at 3% and core prices grew at 1.4%. All figures were 0.1% above expectations. Broader indices are little changed while oil is near six year lows. Expectations are for a build in stockpiles during what is normally a drawdown season, so none of the factors weighing on the price are expected to reverse soon. DOW is up 42 points. S&P 500 is up 4.7 and Nasdaq Composite is up 3 points.
  • A White Christmas in the Northeast and a Santa Claus rally will both need to wait until next year at least. The S&P 500 is heading for its worst December in 13 years. The Index is down 2.7% for the final month of the year, which is usually a positive for stocks.
  • As investors perform year-end portfolio pruning and tax loss selling, they are faced with deciding which macro themes will work in 2016. The ‘Energy rebound trade’ and the ‘rates are going to rise this year” trades did not work all that well for many managers. In fact, according to Bloomberg, bonds may outperform stocks for the second straight year. An article observes that BofA Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index is up 1.3% this year, while the MSCI All Country World Index has dropped 3%, including reinvested dividends. According to Bloomberg, bonds haven’t outperformed stocks since 2001-2002, in the wake of the tech bubble. Conventional wisdom at the beginning of the year was that the bond market rally had to end given that most expected the Fed to act sooner on rates.

The Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes:

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Vincent Randazzo, CMT is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 13 years of experience in equity markets having served in equity research sales and desk analyst roles at major banks. Vincent’s specific expertise is in technical analysis and has been a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) since 2007.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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