Merck's $3 Billion Drug Jumped To 4x Growth Over Previous Year

Merck’s (NYSE:MRK) Gardasil is the leader in the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines market. HPV is a group of more than 200 related viruses, of which several are spread through direct sexual contact. HPV can cause cervical, anal, oropharyngeal, penile, vulvar, and vaginal cancer, and it is thus an important vaccine. There are only three U.S. FDA approved vaccines ~ Gardasil, Gardasil 9, and GlaxoSmithKline’s Cerverix ~ for HPV. Merck’s Gardasil is the leader with sales of over $3 billion in 2018. Gardasil sales growth rate in 2018 was 3.7x that of the average growth rate in the prior 3 years. This can be attributed to its launch in China. In this note we show the trends in Gardasil sales. You can view our interactive dashboard analysis ~ Why Did Merck’s $3 Billion Drug Jump To 4x Growth In Previous Year? ~ for more details. In addition, you can see more healthcare companies data here.

Merck’s Gardasil Is The Leading Vaccine For HPV With Sales of Over $3 Billion.

  • Gardasil sales grew from $1.7 billion in 2014 to $3.2 billion in 2018.
  • This represents an average annual growth rate of 16.7%.
  • Much of the growth came in 2018, when the sales growth rate jumped 4x, the average of the previous three years.

Gardasil Sales Growth Rate In 2018 Was 3.7x When Compared To The Average Growth Rate In The Previous 3 Years, Due To Gardasil’s Launch In China.

Asia Pacific (Ex Japan) Sales For Merck Have Grown 1.8x Between 2015 And 2018. This Can Be Attributed To Launch of Gardasil, And Keytruda, Among Other Drugs Primarily In China.

  • Merck’s sales in the Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan) stood at $5.1 billion in 2018, which compares with $2.7 billion in 2015.
  • Asia Pacific region’s (excluding Japan) contribution to Merck’s overall sales have been on a rise.
  • It increased from 6.8% in 2015 to 12.0% in 2018.

Gardasil’s International Sales Contribution Has Been On A Rise

  • Gardasil’s international sales contribution has doubled from 20% in 2015 to 40% in 2018.
  • This can be attributed to higher vaccination rate in Europe, and 2018 launch in China.

What If The Sales Were To Grow At Historical Average?

  • Gardasil sales grew at an average annual rate of 16.6% between 2014 and 2018.
  • If it were to continue to grow at a similar pace, the drug’s sales could reach the $5 billion mark by 2021.
  • This is possible with continued expansion in ASPAC region, higher vaccination rate in Europe, and increased pricing in the U.S., a trend seen in the recent quarters as well.


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