Where do we stand before the key FOMC decision
We are officially less than 24 hours from the FOMC decision at 2 PM ET on Wednesday. FOMC Chair Yellen will follow with a press conference at 2:30 PM ET/ 1930 GMT.
The current market is quiet. Today the dollar is mixed but little changed from yesterday's levels. The dollar is highest against the JPY and lowest against the NZD but each are also off extremes.
What can be said about some of the pairs from a technical perspective?
The EURUSD moved to new week highs and above a ceiling area at the 1.0650 level in trading today. The move higher took the pair above the 200 hour MA at the 1.0662 level and reached a high at 1.0666.. That break failed and when the price moved back below the 1.0650 level, the buyers became sellers.
That 200 hour was broken on Draghi day, until today, that MA has been leaned against by traders. If the 200 hour MA is not broken before the Fed (it had its chance today and it failed). that level will be topside resistance to get to and through on any rally tomorrow post FOMC. If iit is broken, the pair the 1.0689-98, 1.0739 and 1.0769 (200 bar MA on 4 hour chart) become targets.
On the downside, the 1.0551-67 area and then 1.0517-21*** are levels to eye. The 1.0517-21 was home to 3 swing lows going back to April 2015 (Dec 20154 and November 2016 are the other two lows at that level. The lowest price for this year reached 1.0503 on the Monday following the Italian referendum PS if you go all the way back to March 2003, the swing low for that month came in at 1.0499. In 2015, that level was broken on the way to a low of 1.0461 but it was only for one day (it closed at 1.0493 on March 13th). KEY LEVEL around the 1.0500 level BE AWARE of the importance of that level.
Looking at the weekly chart of the USDJPY, the pair moved above and closed above the 100 week MA last week. That MA comes in at 114.665 this week. The low in trading this week? 114.71. Buyers against that MA perhaps? I think so.
Below that level is 114.44-54. Those levels were swing highs from March 2016. If I could define a bearish below levels for this pair it would be to get below 114.66 and then 114.44-54 (and stay below). One below, we could see a rotation that takes the pair toward 112.43. That is the 50% midpoint of the move down from the June 2015 high.
On the topside, the 115.60 level is the 61.8% of the move down from the 2015 high (see chart above).
Looking at the 5 minute chart below, on Monday, that level was broken on its way to a high of 116.11. Note the action at the 115.60 level in the chart below. At first it was resistance, then it became support and resistance again. That level is important.
The high at 1.0611 is also a key level. Back on August 24, 2015, the swing low on that day reached 116.09. Five months later on January 20th, that low was broken but could only get to 1.05965 before bouncing back higher. Finally it was broken on Feb 8th 2016 and not seen again UNTIL Monday's high. KEY LEVEL to get to and through.
Looking at the daily chart of the GBPUSD the 100 day MA comes in at 1.2766 today (and moving lower). Earlier this month, the price approached that MA line but found early sellers. The MA remains within shouting distance of the current price at 1.2667. A move higher on the back of the FOMC decision and statement would be more bullish BUT be aware that the low from July at 1.2791 will be another hurdle to ultimately get to and through for more upside potential.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair moved above the 100 and 200 hour MAs yesterday (see blue and green lines in the chart below). Those MAs are spread apart now at 1.2648 and 1.2627. A move below each - and staying below, should open the door for further downside potential . The low prices last week at 1.2547 and 1.2551 are anther target to get through. Below that 1.2506 is a trend line on the daily chart.