USDCAD is largely ignoring the oil move as the Us dollar pulls the strings
The dollar's strength is largely still intact early in the US day. It's picked up against commodity currencies as oil scales back from the Saudi induced highs to now trade down on the day and some $1.70 off the highs.
The 1.30 level is always going to be a consideration after what has been a very strong move from the 1.2460 lows.
USDCAD daily chart
There's a couple of levels just above 1.30 that we also need to keep an eye on. The late 2008/early 2009 highs was an area I was watching on the way up and they are likely to show up again if we break 1.30. 1.3016 is one and 1.3062 is the other. The latter is joined by the 55 dma.
As is often the case with large moves, like the one we've seen this year, the snap back can be just as volatile. Whether such a move becomes a new trend or just a natural retracement becomes clearer when we hit levels like this. If it fails then we're likely to see a return towards the lows. Break and we'll get a test of the 38.2 of the 1.46 drop.
It's an interesting chart and I'm eyeing this 1.30 level for a short term short. If I do, I'll short closer to 1.30 and again ahead of the 1.3060 level with a tight stop above the 55 dma.