Look Under The Hood: XLF Has 10% Upside

Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel, we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (Symbol: XLF), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $30.10 per unit.

With XLF trading at a recent price near $27.40 per unit, that means that analysts see 9.84% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of XLF's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are Citigroup Inc (Symbol: C), MetLife Inc (Symbol: MET), and Citizens Financial Group Inc (Symbol: CFG). Although C has traded at a recent price of $68.83/share, the average analyst target is 20.31% higher at $82.81/share. Similarly, MET has 14.75% upside from the recent share price of $44.93 if the average analyst target price of $51.55/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting CFG to reach a target price of $40.71/share, which is 13.68% above the recent price of $35.81. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of C, MET, and CFG:

C, MET, and CFG Relative Performance Chart

Combined, C, MET, and CFG represent 6.98% of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF. Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:


Name Symbol Recent Price Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target % Upside to Target
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF XLF $27.40 $30.10 9.84%
Citigroup Inc C $68.83 $82.81 20.31%
MetLife Inc MET $44.93 $51.55 14.75%
Citizens Financial Group Inc CFG $35.81 $40.71 13.68%

Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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