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Japan (final) Q3 GDP: +0.3% q/q (expected 0.5%, preliminary was 0.5%)

Final GDP data for Q3 and BoP numbers for October

GDP (seasonally adjusted), final, q/q: 0.3% ... a miss compared to the preliminary

  • expected 0.5%, preliminary was 0.5%

GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted), final y/y: 1.3% ... big miss

  • expected 2.3%, preliminary was -2.2%

GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted), final q/q: 0.1% miss

  • expected 0.2%, preliminary 0.2%

GDP Deflator y/y, final: -0.2% miss

  • expected -0.1%, preliminary -0.1%

GDP Consumer Spending (aka private Consumption) y/y, 0.3% beat

  • expected 0.1%, preliminary 0.1%

GDP Business Spending y/y, -0.4% ... huge miss

  • expected +0.2%, preliminary 0.0%

Bad misses nearly across the board, at least private consumption steps up though (accounts for roughly 60% of the economy).

Preliminary was revised down, mainly due to lowering the initial estimates of capital expenditure and inventories

  • Capital expenditure fell 0.4% in the quarter (preliminary estimate was flat)
  • Steel and real estate companies reduced investment
  • Inventories subtracted 0.3%

Note (via Reuters reporting):

  • The government adopted a new base year for calculating gross domestic product that led to changes in previous data and made forecasting revised third-quarter GDP more difficult, economists said
  • The new calculation method, which will include research and development in capital expenditure for the first time, has been applied to GDP data going back to 1994.

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ps. For the Q2 data (i.e. prior), see here: A big beat for GDP, but check out the inflation measure (deflator) ... a notable miss.

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Also, BoP data out simultaneously

BoP Current Account Balance for October, ¥ 1719.9B

  • expected ¥ 1545.0B, prior ¥ 1821.0B

BoP Current Account Adjusted: ¥ 1928.9B

  • expected ¥ 1716.5B, prior ¥ 1477.3B

Trade Balance BoP Basis: ¥ 587.6B

  • expected ¥ 603.0B, prior ¥ 642.4B

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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