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Is it time for the Fed to put in an order for tin hats?

The market is losing faith in the Fed hike after only two months

The problems are mounting up for the Fed right now. Services and manufacturing are looking ugly. You can try to get away with brushing off manufacturing as a small-ish part of GDP but now the sectors not doing so well are adding up.

Fed funds futures have further priced out the next possible hikes

FFR implied probabilities

Fundamentally the Fed still has a pretty resilient housing market and are still the right side of inflation and jobs (that's their mandate). As I mentioned in the services PMI, if we see jobs turn south we could have some real fun. The pressure on Friday's jobs data has increased tenfold with the data today and a bad report may not be able to be brushed under the carpet as a one off.

In the meantime, The buck is still getting hammered with USDJPY now posting a low of 118.10 while EURUSD makes hay into 1.1000 with a high of 1.1044. Cable's had a knock at the 1.4600 door but came up 4 pips short.

Coming in the FOMC March projections

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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