Investors Heavily Search Evolution Petroleum Corporation, Inc. (EPM): Here is What You Need to Know

Evolution Petroleum (EPM) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.

Shares of this oil and gas company have returned +6.2% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.6% change. The Zacks Oil and Gas - Exploration and Production - United States industry, to which Evolution Petroleum belongs, has gained 9.4% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?

Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.

Earnings Estimate Revisions

Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.

Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.

For the current quarter, Evolution Petroleum is expected to post earnings of $0.04 per share, indicating a change of -90.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.

For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $0.21 points to a change of -79.2% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.

For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $0.67 indicates a change of +221.4% from what Evolution Petroleum is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.

Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Evolution Petroleum is rated Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:

12 Month EPS

Projected Revenue Growth

Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.

In the case of Evolution Petroleum, the consensus sales estimate of $21.84 million for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of -40.8%. The $88.68 million and $126.7 million estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of -31% and +42.9%, respectively.

Last Reported Results and Surprise History

Evolution Petroleum reported revenues of $21.02 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -37.6%. EPS of $0.03 for the same period compares with $0.29 a year ago.

Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $23.67 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -11.16%. The EPS surprise was -70%.

Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed EPS estimates just once. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.

Valuation

Without considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.

While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.

The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.

Evolution Petroleum is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.

Conclusion

The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Evolution Petroleum. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.

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Evolution Petroleum Corporation, Inc. (EPM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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