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I'd love an NFP USDJPY pop to 116.00 to sell but 115.00 might have to suffice

Time to look at some price levels to watch over NFP

My strategy for trading the jobs report is to look at the reaction and try to find a trade after the news comes out. There's forces far quicker than me these days that can trade immediately on the numbers.

I like to think I've got the beating of them afterwards though so that's the way I'll look to play it.

I'd love a pop to 116.00 in USDJPY as that's a level I'm keeping in the back of my mind. It was a strong support level on the way down and I'll suspect it will be equally strong on a move up. Being around 230 pips away it will take very very big numbers to run us up there.

115.00 looks a better prospect and it holds some great looking tech which will make it a very good potential stall point for any big jump.

Here's the levels that are worth watching

USDJPY H4 chart

UP

  • 114.00 is the closest but too close to the current price. It's likely to have a bigger effect if we see a drop and reverse on a mildly soft number, say something like a 50 pip loss then turnaround.
  • 114.20/30 has shown itself as resistance on occasions through Feb and can be used in the same context of 114.00 above. Being 50 pips away it may have a say if we get what's expected
  • 114.50/60 is the March high and subsequent Feb high after we failed to attack 115.00 and came up short at 114.87
  • That 114.85/90 level is where we'll see the first decent protection of 115.00
  • 115.00/05 is the 38.2 fib of the Jan drop and has the 100 wma at 115.12. Given how the price has performed when feeling out 115, and the distance from the current price. It's rings all my bells for picking a potential halt point for any move up and somewhere to load a short into.

Down

  • 113.20 looks to be the closest decent support and that's right on the 100 H4 ma
  • The 55 H4 ma adds to support at 113.00
  • 112.70/80 could house some minor support if 113.00 breaks
  • 112.35/40 and 112.00/10 are two further points to watch and might be where I'd think about a long
  • 111.60 is starting to get into the extreme range and a break there will bring focus back on the Feb lows. It'll take an awful number to get us there

Just under 15 minutes to go so lock and load.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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