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How Much Is Roche's Phase 3 Drug Pipeline Worth?

We estimate that Roche's ( RHHBY ) phase 3 drug pipeline (not counting the enhancement of currently marketed products) could be worth as much as $28 billion, or nearly 15% of its current market value. We have created an interactive dashboard on Roche's phase 3 pipeline, which includes segment-wise breakup of new compounds, their estimated peak sales, probability of approval, and the resulting probability adjusted revenues. Note that you can adjust the probability, and estimated peak sales of all the compounds. Below are some of the screenshots from the interactive dashboard. Note that the company in its latest phase 3 pipeline report has removed its potential opthalmology candidate lampalizumab.

Summary of Phase 3 Pipeline

  • Total Pipeline Value ~ $28 Billion
  • 2024 Probability Adjusted Revenues - $7.5 Billion

Neuroscience

Within Neuroscience, the company has four important drugs - Gantenerumab, RG6206, Satralizumab, and Crenezumab. Total probability adjusted 2024 estimated revenues for Neuroscience are $3.4 billion.

Within Neuroscience, the company has four important drugs - Gantenerumab, RG6206, Satralizumab, and Crenezumab. Total probability adjusted 2024 estimated revenues for Neuroscience are $3.4 billion.

Oncology

Looking at oncology drugs, the company currently has three new compounds - Idasanutlin, Ipatasertib, and Taselisib - under phase 3 trials. Total probability adjusted 2024 revenues are estimated to be $2.9 billion.

Other Drugs

Looking at other drugs, there is only one compound under phase 3 trials - Emicizumab - with estimated probability adjusted 2024 revenues of $850 million.

Looking at other drugs, there is only one compound under phase 3 trials - Emicizumab - with estimated probability adjusted 2024 revenues of $850 million.

Immunology

Etrolizumab is the only drug within Immunology segment, with estimated probability adjusted 2024 revenues of $375 million.

Our price estimate of $36 for Roche implies a premium of over 15% to the market.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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