How Much HDD Revenues Can Western Digital Add Over The Next 2 Years?

Western Digital’s (NASDAQ: WDC) HDD revenue will likely grow at an average annual rate of 10.7% from $8.6 billion in fiscal 2019 to $10.5 billion in fiscal 2021, according to Trefis estimates. This growth will likely be led by strong capacity enterprise demand. In this note we discuss the HDD revenues for Western Digital, and its comparison with that of its competitor. You can look at our interactive dashboard analysis ~ How Much Can Western Digital’s HDD Revenue Grow Over The Next Two Years? ~ for more details. In addition, you can look at more Information Technology companies data here.

How Much Has Western Digital’s HDD Revenue Grown Since Fiscal 2016, And How Much Can It Grow Over The Next 2 Years?

  • Western Digital’s HDD sales declined from $11.20 billion in fiscal 2016 to $8.6 billion in fiscal 2019.
  • This represents a -8.3% average annual decline in revenues (fiscal 2016- fiscal 2019).
  • This can primarily be attributed to lower Client Devices sales, given the shortage of Intel chips. Intel saw strong data center demand in the recent years, which led to production issues for its 14nm chips. This also impacted the HDD demand at large.

What Could Impact The HDD Sales Over The Next 2 Years?

  • The growth in HDD sales over the next two years, will likely be led by growth in both volume and pricing.
  • Western Digital’s HDD units shipped declined from 185 million in fiscal 2016 to 120 million in fiscal 2019. However, it could grow to 140 million in fiscal 2021.
  • Western Digital’s HDD average selling price has consistently seen growth from $61 in fiscal 2016 to $72 in fiscal 2019. We expect this trend to continue, and the figure to reach $75 by fiscal 2021.

How Does Western Digital’s Growth In HDD Compare To That of Seagate?

  • Western Digital’s HDD sales declined at an average annual rate of -8.3% from $11.2 billion in fiscal 2016 to $8.6 billion in fiscal 2019, and they could grow in low double-digits on average over the next two years.
  • Seagate’s HDD sales declined at an average annual rate of -1.6% since fiscal 2016. This was better than the decline rate for its prime competitor ~ Western Digital.

How Has Western Digital’s Share In Global HDD Market Trended In The Past, And What Lies Ahead?

  • Global HDD total available market declined at an average annual rate of -5.5% from 432 million units in 2016 to an estimated 365 million units in 2019.
  • Western Digital also saw a decline in sales during the same period. As such, it lost market share from 42.7% in fiscal 2016 to 32.8% in fiscal 2019.
  • Looking forward, the overall market could rebound and grow in low single-digits over the next few years. Western Digital’s share will also grow to over 37%, in our view.



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