Housing Market 2023: 40 Places Poised for a Housing Crisis

Buying a home is the biggest investment most people ever will make, but the real estate market can be fickle.

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If you’re a prospective buyer, you’ll want to put down roots in a place with a healthy market where your investment will appreciate. And if you’re a seller, it pays to keep tabs on the market fluctuations so that you don’t sell in a downturn.

A new study from GOBankingRates shows 40 metropolitan areas at risk for a widespread housing crisis. Using data from sources that include the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the 2021 American Community Survey and Zillow, GOBankingRates identified the areas poised for a drop in housing values or sales. The study examined factors such as mortgage delinquencies, homeowner and rental vacancy rates, and sales under the listing price.

Where are these areas? While they are sprinkled throughout the United States, they are concentrated in the southern half – with eight of them in one state. Read on to learn which metro areas could be poised to experience a housing crisis.

McAllen is the largest city in Hidalgo County, Texas, United States, and the twenty-second most populous city in Texas.

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.76%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.83%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 8.2%
  • Average days to pending: 73.00
  • Sales under list price: 62.70%
  • Average days to close: 27.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 14.84%

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Louisiana Shreveport

Shreveport-Bossier City, Louisiana

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.23%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.97%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 10.2%
  • Average days to pending: 49.60
  • Sales under list price: 52.33%
  • Average days to close: 35.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 20.14%

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Aerial photo Downtown Baton Rouge Louisiana USA.

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.18%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.88%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 9.3%
  • Average days to pending: 46.40
  • Sales under list price: 55.18%
  • Average days to close: 35.25
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 22.14%
Florence is a city in, and the county seat of, Florence County, South Carolina, United States.

Florence, South Carolina

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.36%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.87%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 7.4%
  • Average days to pending: 44.00
  • Sales under list price: 55.35%
  • Average days to close: 40.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 19.75%
Longview_Texas_iStock-1359209897

Longview, Texas

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.91%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.94%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 8.5%
  • Average days to pending: 60.00
  • Sales under list price: 59.10%
  • Average days to close: 29.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 17.90%
Jackson, Mississippi stock photo

Jackson, Mississippi

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.41%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.77%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 7.9%
  • Average days to pending: 41.00
  • Sales under list price: 60.60%
  • Average days to close: 36.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 20.88%

Learn More: 5 Reasons the Housing Market is Reversing

Gardens and the Tatnall Building in Dover, Delaware.

Dover, Delaware

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.89%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.17%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 4.4%
  • Average days to pending: 32.60
  • Sales under list price: 40.71%
  • Average days to close: 43.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 21.23%
Beaumont is a Town in South East Texas - Image.

Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.34%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.64%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 5.2%
  • Average days to pending: 65.80
  • Sales under list price: 60.04%
  • Average days to close: 31.25
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 20.57%
View over the Texas State Aquarium in Corpus Christi.

Corpus Christi, Texas

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.02%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 7.3%
  • Average days to pending: 65.80
  • Sales under list price: 65.69%
  • Average days to close: 32.25
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 20.21%
New Orleans River Paddle boat colorful sky stock photo

New Orleans-Metairie, Louisiana

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.50%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.86%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 6.8%
  • Average days to pending: 58.60
  • Sales under list price: 66.33%
  • Average days to close: 36.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 23.39%

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Long exposure photo of Marshall's Falls located in East Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania.

East Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.05%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.77%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.9%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 4.2%
  • Average days to pending: 51.00
  • Sales under list price: 55.86%
  • Average days to close: 41.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 16.88%
Mobile, Alabama Skyline from Cooper Riverside Park.

Mobile, Alabama

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.25%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.68%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 5.9%
  • Average days to pending: 41.20
  • Sales under list price: 52.92%
  • Average days to close: 37.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 19.36%
Downtown Street in historic Ocala, Florida.

Ocala, Florida

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.43%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.71%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 6.1%
  • Average days to pending: 55.20
  • Sales under list price: 64.85%
  • Average days to close: 36.25
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 27.22%
San Antonio, Texas, USA downtown skyline.

San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.74%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.63%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 7.2%
  • Average days to pending: 54.20
  • Sales under list price: 59.15%
  • Average days to close: 30.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 26.68%

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PUEBLO, CO, USA-16 JULY 18: Colorful boats in foreground, rock formations in midground, a distant mountan range, and wispy clouds above--Pueblo State Park.

Pueblo, Colorado

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.71%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 1.7%
  • Average days to pending: 59.80
  • Sales under list price: 52.69%
  • Average days to close: 34.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 23.88%
The famous Yuma Lakes in Yuma, Arizona - Image.

Yuma, Arizona

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.90%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.78%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 5.9%
  • Average days to pending: 50.40
  • Sales under list price: 52.33%
  • Average days to close: 32.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 14.30%
Elkhart, Indiana, USA - August 24, 2014: View of the downtown of the city of Elkhart, in the State of Indiana.

Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.72%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.90%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.8%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 8.8%
  • Average days to pending: 30.00
  • Sales under list price: 51.34%
  • Average days to close: 35.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 19.42%
Downtown Columbia South Carolina Skyline SC Aerial Panorama.

Columbia, South Carolina

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.74%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.75%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 5.1%
  • Average days to pending: 41.60
  • Sales under list price: 55.05%
  • Average days to close: 32.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 21.66%

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Utica is a city in the Mohawk Valley and the county seat of Oneida County, New York, United States.

Utica-Rome, New York

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.31%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.78%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 6.1%
  • Average days to pending: 49.80
  • Sales under list price: 62.67%
  • Average days to close: 64.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 15.28%
Saginaw Michigan skyline along the banks of the Saginaw River.

Saginaw, Michigan

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.82%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 11.1%
  • Average days to pending: 42.40
  • Sales under list price: 54.41%
  • Average days to close: 35.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 17.22%
Two-story brick office building, located in downtown Hagerstown, Maryland

Hagerstown-Martinsburg, Maryland-West Virginia

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.68%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.88%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 4.3%
  • Average days to pending: 31.80
  • Sales under list price: 42.15%
  • Average days to close: 40.25
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 18.42%
Shoal Creek is a tributary of Spring River.

Joplin, Missouri

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.90%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 0.9%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 2.7%
  • Average days to pending: 41.60
  • Sales under list price: 55.52%
  • Average days to close: 33.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 17.28%

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Fort Smith is the second-largest city in Arkansas and one of the two county seats of Sebastian County.

Fort Smith, Arkansas-Oklahoma

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.66%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.68%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.5%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 6.7%
  • Average days to pending: 53.00
  • Sales under list price: 58.45%
  • Average days to close: 31.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 15.53%
Atlantic City skyline hotel casinos from a scenic beach.

Atlantic City-Hammonton, New Jersey

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.13%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.83%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.3%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 6.3%
  • Average days to pending: 56.40
  • Sales under list price: 52.36%
  • Average days to close: 53.25
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 12.47%
DCIM

Muskegon, Michigan

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.23%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.61%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 6.4%
  • Average days to pending: 30.40
  • Sales under list price: 50.19%
  • Average days to close: 36.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 18.99%
Panama City Florida

Panama City, Florida

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.03%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.55%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.1%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 9.4%
  • Average days to pending: 66.40
  • Sales under list price: 74.41%
  • Average days to close: 35.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 22.98%

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Youngstown Ohio winter

Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio-Pennsylvania

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.59%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.71%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.7%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 5.1%
  • Average days to pending: 37.20
  • Sales under list price: 59.91%
  • Average days to close: 38.25
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 18.70%
Lakeland-Florida

Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.35%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.57%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 5.3%
  • Average days to pending: 50.80
  • Sales under list price: 60.74%
  • Average days to close: 39.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 27.69%
Downtown Hickory NC stock photo

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, North Carolina

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.68%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.72%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 5.1%
  • Average days to pending: 45.60
  • Sales under list price: 60.16%
  • Average days to close: 39.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 13.19%
Birds Flying Over Pier Topsail Island Beach Jacksonville, NC.

Jacksonville, North Carolina

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.40%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.08%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 8.2%
  • Average days to pending: 22.00
  • Sales under list price: 35.87%
  • Average days to close: 34.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 17.36%

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Amarillo is the 14th-most populous city in the state of Texas, United States.

Amarillo, Texas

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.76%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.61%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 9.7%
  • Average days to pending: 37.20
  • Sales under list price: 55.70%
  • Average days to close: 30.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 21.70%
view of the city of syracuse in upstate new york.

Syracuse, New York

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.43%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.98%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.6%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 6.9%
  • Average days to pending: 31.80
  • Sales under list price: 37.77%
  • Average days to close: 63.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 10.48%
Houston, Texas, USA downtown city skyline and park at dawn.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.57%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.54%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.3%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 8.8%
  • Average days to pending: 51.60
  • Sales under list price: 63.65%
  • Average days to close: 30.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 22.71%
Macon, Georgia

Macon-Bibb County, Georgia

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.63%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.66%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.8%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 9.5%
  • Average days to pending: 42.60
  • Sales under list price: 56.77%
  • Average days to close: 32.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 17.07%

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Evening sky along Mobile Bay on the Alabama Gulf Coast.

Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, Alabama

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.89%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.41%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.5%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 45.2%
  • Average days to pending: 60.80
  • Sales under list price: 76.11%
  • Average days to close: 34.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 21.27%
Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.

Sebastian-Vero Beach, Florida

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.10%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.39%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 3%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 19.3%
  • Average days to pending: 54.60
  • Sales under list price: 72.18%
  • Average days to close: 37.00
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 25.09%
Dixie Avenue & Main Street Unite at the Public Square in Downtown Elizabethtown, Hardin County, Kentucky, USA.

Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, Kentucky

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 0.91%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.83%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 6.7%
  • Average days to pending: 52.60
  • Sales under list price: 61.76%
  • Average days to close: 32.75
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 18.91%
Sunset come to Waco Texas and the downtown river front.

Waco, Texas

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.60%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.47%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 4.6%
  • Average days to pending: 54.00
  • Sales under list price: 65.14%
  • Average days to close: 32.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 23.97%

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Erie Pennsylvania

Erie, Pennsylvania

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.73%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.67%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.4%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 7.7%
  • Average days to pending: 41.00
  • Sales under list price: 51.55%
  • Average days to close: 40.25
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 14.35%
University of Illinois college campus in Urbana Champaign

Champaign-Urbana, Illinois

  • Mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.08%
  • Mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.71%
  • Homeowner vacancy rate: 2.3%
  • Rental vacancy rate: 11.1%
  • Average days to pending: 43.20
  • Sales under list price: 65.68%
  • Average days to close: 39.50
  • Share of listings with a price cut: 15.42%

Andrew Lisa contributed to the reporting for this article.

Methodology: To find the 40 metro areas that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at all metros with available data in the United States across the following factors: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent as sourced from the Consumer Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2021 American Community Survey; (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2021 American Community Survey; (5) mean days from when a house hits market to pending sale as sourced from Zillow; (6) percentage of homes sold below final list price as sourced from Zillow; (7) mean days from pending to closed sale as sourced from Zillow; and (8) the percentage of listings with a price cut as sourced from Zillow. These eight factors were then scored and combined with the highest score indicating the metros most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 3x and factors (4) and (7) were weighted 0.5x. All data was collected on and up to date as of July 11, 2023.

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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Housing Market 2023: 40 Places Poised for a Housing Crisis

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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