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Home Depot Historically Favors Short Play off Earnings-Driven Pre-Bell Moves

Home Depot ( HD ) is due with its Q4 results in the pre-market on Tuesday, Feb. 26, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to post a profit of $2.16 per share on revenue of $26.57 billion.

Home Depot favors narrowing between the sessions, cutting back or reversing course in the following regular sessions after 31 of the last 56 pre-marke t earnings events we've tracked.

Looking deeper into the performance data, HD is favoring the short side in adding to its earnings-driven pre-market declines in the follow-on regular session. In 38 quarters of the 56 we've tracked, the stock recorded a pre-market advance. In 17 of those quarters, 44% of the time, the stock has added to its gains in the following regular session. It narrowed 56% of the time. On the downside, HD has recorded 18 quarters where it has seen an earnings-driven pre-market decline, adding to its downside 10 times, or 56% of the time, and narrowing its declines eight times in the following regular session.

On Nov. 13, 2018, HD declined 1.5% in pre-bell trade after beating Q3 expectations and boosting its full year guidance. The stock narrowed its declines in the follow-on regular session, closing down 0.3%.

On Aug. 14, 2018, HD edged up 0.4% in pre-market trade after beating Q2 estimates and raising its full year outlook. The stock reversed direction in that day's regular session, closing down 0.5%.

On May 15, 2018, HD dipped 0.8% in pre-bell action after missing Q1 revenue expectations and reaffirming its full year earnings outlook below the Street's consensus. The stock added to its declines in that day's regular session, closing down 1.6%.

On Feb. 20, 2018, HD advanced 1.6% in pre-market trade after topping Q4 estimates on both the top and bottom lines. The stock turned lower in the regular session, closing down 0.03%.

On Nov. 14, 2017, HD declined 1.1% in pre-bell action despite topping Q3 expectations and raising its fiscal year guidance. The stock reversed direction in that day's regular session, closing up 1.6%.

On Aug. 15, 2017, HD edged up 0.2% in pre-market trade after posting better-than-expected Q2 results and raising its FY guidance. The stock reversed direction in that day's regular session, ending down 2.6%.

On May 16, 2017, HD advanced 1.7% in pre-bell action after beating Q1 expectations and boosting its FY EPS guidance. The stock cut its upside in that day's regular session, closing with a 0.6% gain.

On Feb. 21, 2017, HD gained 2.1% in pre-market trade after posting better-than-expected Q4 results. The stock narrowed its gains in that day's regular session, closing up 1.4%.

On Nov. 15, 2016, HD dipped 0.4% in pre-bell trade despite beating Q3 Street estimates. The stock moved lower in that day's regular session, closing down 2.5%.

On Aug. 16, 2016, HD edged up 0.4% in pre-market trade after posting Q2 results in line with expectations and reaffirming its outlook for 2016. The stock reversed direction in that day's regular session, closing down 0.6%.

On May 17, 2016, HD declined 1.6% in pre-bell action after posting better-than-expected Q1 results and raising its guidance. The stock added to its downside in that day's regular session, ending down 2.5%.

On Feb. 23, 2016, HD advanced 3.4% in pre-market trade after beating Q4 Street estimates. The stock cut its upside in the follow-on regular session, closing up 1.3%.

On Nov. 17, 2015, HD gained 3.2% in pre-bell trade after reporting better-than-expected results for its Q4 and setting guidance above Street estimates. The stock added to its gains in that day's regular session, closing up 4.4%.

On Aug. 18, 2015, HD advanced 1.7% in pre-market trade after posting better-than-expected Q3 results and guidance. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, ending up 2.6%.

On May 15, 2015, HD gained 1.7% in pre-bell trade after beating Q1 expectations. The stock reversed direction in the follow-on regular session, closing down 1.7%.

On Feb. 24, 2015, HD advanced 4.3% in pre-market trade after topping Q4 Street estimates and setting mixed guidance. The stock narrowed its early advance in that day's regular session, closing up 3.9%.

On Nov. 18, 2014, HD declined 1% in pre-bell trade after beating Q3 expectations and reaffirming its guidance. It moved deeper in the red in the regular session, ending down 2%.

On Aug. 19, 2014, HD was up 3.9% in pre-market trade after posting better-than-expected Q2 results and raising its guidance. The stock added to its upside in that day's regular session, closing with a 5.5% rise.

On May 20, 2014, HD advanced 1.8% in pre-bell action despite missing Q1 expectations while raising its full year earnings view. The stock eked out a slightly higher move in that day's regular session, ending up 1.9%.

On Feb. 25, 2014, HD gained 2.3% in pre-market trade after i t report ed Q4 sales shy of expectations while also beating on EPS and hiking its dividend. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, ending up 3.9%.

On Nov. 19, 2013, HD gained 3.1% in pre-bell trade after beating Q3 expectations and raising its guidance. The stock lost the bulk of those gains in that day's regular session, ending up 0.8%.

On Aug. 20, 2013, HD advanced 2.7% in pre-market trade after topping Q2 expectations. The stock reversed direction in that day's regular session, ending down 1.2%.

On May 21, 2013, HD gained 3.3% in pre-bell trade after beating Q1 estimates. The stock narrowed its upside in that day's regular session, ending with a 2.5% rise.

On Feb. 26, 2013, HD advanced 2.6% in pre-market trade after blowing past Q4 expectations and setting its FY 2013 EPS guidance below the Street. The stock charged higher in that day's regular session, ending up 5.7%.

On Nov. 13, 2012, HD gained 1.9% in pre-bell trade after topping Q3 estimates and setting its FY 2013 EPS outlook above Street expectations. The stock moved higher in that day's regular session, ending up 3.6%.

On Aug. 14, 2012, HD advanced 2% in pre-market action after beating Q2 earnings estimates and reaffirming its outlook. The stock firmed higher in that day's regular session, closing up 3.5%.

On May 15, 2012, HD declined 4.5% in pre-bell trade after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance. The stock cut its downside in that day's regular session, ending down 2.4%.

On Feb. 21, 2012, HD gained 2.9% In pre-bell action after beating Q4 expectations and setting guidance above the Street view. The stock lost most of its gains in that day's regular session, ending up a mere 0.4%.

On Nov. 15, 2011, HD gained 1.1% in pre-market action after beating Q3 estimates and raising its earnings outlook. The stock lost its gain in that day's regular session, ending down 0.4%.

On Aug. 16, 2011, HD advanced 5% in pre-bell trade after beating Q2 expectations and raising its earnings view. It added modestly to its upside in the follow-on regular session, ending up 5.2%.

On May 17, 2011, the stock rose 0.9% after the company just beat with EPS but was shy with sales. Shares rose 1.1% during the day's regular trading session.

On Feb. 22, 2011, HD gained 2.1% in pre-market trade after beating Q4 expectations. The stock reversed direction in the follow-on regular session, ending the day down 1%.

On Nov. 16, 2010, HD edged up 0.8% in pre-bell trade after beating Q3 earnings estimates and posting in-line revenue results. The stock added slightly to its upside in that day's regular session, closing up 1%.

On August 17, 2010, the stock rose 1.4% in the pre-market session after a narrow Q2 beat but mixed revenue and extended that move 3.3% during the following regular trading session.

On May 18, 2010, the stock edged up 0.8% after a Q1 beat and guides for FY EPS just above the Street view. Shares reversed and closed down 2.4% during the day's following session.

On Feb. 23, 2010, the stock was up 0.8% during extended-hours trading after reporting ahead of the Street with Q4 results. Shares gained 1.4% during regular trading.

On Nov. 17, 2009, HD declined 1.9% in pre-bell action despite reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock firmed deeper in the red that day, ending the regular session down 2.4%.

On Aug. 18, 2009, HD advanced 3% in pre-market trade after beating earnings expectations but coming in shy on revenue. The stock eked out a slightly larger upside in the follow-on regular session, ending the day up 3.1%.

On May 19, 2009, HD declined 2.2% in pre-market trade despite beating Q1 expectations. The stock saw its declines head deeper in the red in the May 19 regular session, ending down 5.3%.

On Feb. 24, 2009, HD advanced 4.7% in pre-market action after topping Q4 expectations. It added to its upside in the following regular session, rising 10.5% by the Feb. 24 closing bell.

On Nov. 18, 2008, HD advanced 3.4% in pre-market trade after beating Q3 expectations and guiding for declines in sales and earnings. The stock edged just higher in the following regular session, closing with a 3.5% gain.

On Aug. 19, 2008, HD shed a slim 0.2% in pre-market trade after beating Q2 expectations but also issuing a weaker outlook. The stock added to its declines in the following regular session, losing 3.7% by the close on Aug. 19.

On May 20, 2008, HD declined 3.5% in pre-market trade despite beating Q1 expectations. The stock added to its downside in the May 20 regular session, losing 5.2% by the closing bell.

On Feb. 26, 2008, the stock fell 1.6% during pre-market trading after HD misses with Q4 results and offers disappointing guidance. The stock reversed to close regular trading up 0.03%.

On Nov. 13, 2007, HD declined 1.9% in pre-market trade aftermissing Q3 expectations. It turned from the red in the regular session and ended the day with a 2.3% gain.

On Aug. 14, 2007, HD declined 0.3% in pre-market trade despite topping Q2 expectations. It cut its downside and firmed to the flatline in that day's regular session.

On May 15, 2007, the stock dropped 2.6% in the pre-market hours after HD reported shy of the Street view with Q1 results and guided for FY at lower end of previous range. The share loss was pared to 1.8% by the closing bell.

On Feb. 20, 2007, HD shed 1.7% in pre-market trade after the company reported Q4 sales below Street expectations. It cut back that downside in the Feb. 20 regular session, ending the day down a slim 0.2%.

On Nov. 14, 2006, HD slipped 1.3% in pre-market trade after the company reported improved year-over-year results, but the numbers were still shy of expectations. The downside was turned around in that day's regular session, and HD closed the day with a strong 4.3% rise.

On Aug. 15, 2006, HD gained 3.8% in pre-market trade after the company beat Q2 expectations and forecast it anticipates meeting the low end of full year guidance range. The gain was knocked back a bit in the regular session as HD ended the day up 3.5%.

On May 16, 2006, HD declined 2.5% in pre-market trade after beating on earnings and posting revenue about in line with expectations. The stock added to its downside between the bells, ending the day down 5%.

On Feb. 21, 2006, HD jumped 2.6% in pre-market trade after the company topped Street expectations. This healthy gain failed to maintain support into the regular session as HD ultimately ended that day's regular session up a mere 0.2%.

On Nov. 15, 2005, HD advanced 1.1% in pre-market trade after the company beat Q3 expectations and raised its growth guidance. Those pre-bell gains evaporated in the regular session as HD ended the day down 0.4%.

On Aug. 16, 2005, HD dipped 0.4% in pre-market trading despite topping Q3 expectations and raising earnings growth guidance. It widened its loss in the subsequent regular session, slipping 2.2%.

HD gained 4.3% on the morning of May 17, 2005, after topping Street EPS expectations but missing sales forecasts, and reaffirming its 2005 growth guidance. It narrowed its gain in the same-day regular session, climbing 4%.

On Nov. 16, 2004, HD edged up 0.7% in pre-market trading after topping the Q3 Street view and raising earnings growth guidance. It reversed course in the subsequent regular session, slipping 1.8%.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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