Stocks

Hologic Stock Is Up 15% In A Month, What Are The Chances It'll Fall From Here?

Hologic stock (NASDAQ: HOLX) gained 15% over the last month to levels of around $69 currently. But will the company’s stock see higher levels over the coming weeks, or is a decline in the stock imminent?

According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price, returns for Hologic stock average around 0.4% in the next one-month (21 trading days) period after experiencing 15% gains over the previous month (21 trading days). Notably, though, the stock is very likely to perform in-line with the S&P500 over the next month (21 trading days), with an expected excess return of just –0.1%.

But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding HOLX stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Hologic stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF HOLX stock moved by -5% over 5 trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, HOLX stock moves an average of 4.0%, which implies an excess return of 3.5% compared to the S&P500.

More importantly, there is 60% probability of a positive return over the next 21 trading days and 57% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over 5 trading days.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Hologic Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for Hologic stock higher after a drop?

Answer: Consider two situations,

Case 1: Hologic stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Hologic stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Hologic stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

HOLX stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 3.8% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 7.1% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Hologic stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer: If you buy and hold Hologic stock, the expectation is over time the near term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For HOLX stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Next N Days HOLX Average Return S&P 500 Average Return
1 day -0.3% 0.5%
5 days -0.1% 1.1%
10 days 0.2% 0.9%
21 days 3.8% 3.1%
63 days 12.8% 5.2%
126 days 21.5% 7.4%
252 days 17.8% 15.6%

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Hologic after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than a fall, once the time period approaches six months, as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although HOLX stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

HOLX’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Next N Days HOLX Average Return S&P 500 Average Return
1 day 0.2% -0.3%
5 days 1% -0.3%
10 days 4.5% 0.1%
21 days 7.1% 0.5%
63 days 15.4% 3.0%
126 days 19.3% 6.6%
252 days 13.5% 11.7%

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Hologic stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

 

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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