Here's What to Expect From Assurant's (AIZ) Q1 Earnings

Assurant, Inc. AIZ is slated to report first-quarter 2024 earnings on May 7, after the closing bell. AIZ's earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 42.15%.

Factors to Note

Revenues are likely to have benefited from improved net earned premiums and higher net investment income. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.82 billion, implying growth of 6.1% from the year-ago quarter’s levels.

Net earned premiums are expected to have benefited from higher premiums in the Global Housing and Global Lifestyle segments.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter net earned premiums, fees and other income is pegged at $2.3 billion. We expect net earned premiums to increase 2.8% year over year to $2.3 billion in the to-be-reported quarter. We anticipate fees and other income to increase 15.3% to $326.1 million.

Net investment income is likely to have gained from higher yields and assets in fixed maturity securities, short-term investments and cash and cash equivalents. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter net investment income is pegged at $135 million, implying an improvement of 28.5% from the year-ago reported number. We expect net investment income to increase 34.7% to $141.7 million.

Global Housing is expected to have been driven by Homeowners from higher lender-placed average insured values and policies in force, as well as a rise in premium rates primarily to address increased claims severity and the absence of unfavorable catastrophe reinstatement premiums. The upside is likely to have been driven by reduced catastrophes and lower non-catastrophe loss experience.

Global Lifestyle is expected to have benefited from continued domestic organic growth from prior period sales in the Global Automotive business across all distribution channels and organic growth across all products. The uptick is likely to have been partially offset by the negative impact of a previously disclosed mobile program contract change that resulted in lower retention of premiums net of reinsurance, as well as the run-off of certain global mobile programs.

Total benefits, losses and expenses might have escalated because of higher policyholder benefits, underwriting and selling, general and administrative expenses. We expect total expenses to increase 2.2% to $2.5 billion.

Continued share buybacks are likely to have aided the bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.87 per share, implying an increase of 40.7% from the prior-year reported figure.

What Our Quantitative Model Unveils

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Assurant this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: Assurant has an Earnings ESP of -1.91%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Assurant, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Assurant, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Assurant, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Assurant, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: AIZ carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Stocks to Consider

Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Horace Mann Educators Corporation HMN has an Earnings ESP of +15.03% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 77 cents, indicating a year-over-year increase of 234.7%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

HMN’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and matched in one.

Royalty Pharma PLC RPRX has an Earnings ESP of +5.21% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 96 cents, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 40%.

RPRX’s earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in one.

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ATLC has an Earnings ESP of +21.43% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 98 cents, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 9.2%.

ATLC’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Royalty Pharma PLC (RPRX) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (ATLC) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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