Growth worries keep German Bund yield below zero percent

Credit: REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

By Dhara Ranasinghe

LONDON, April 25 (Reuters) - Germany's 10-year government bond yield fell to a two-week low below zero percent on Thursday, a day after a disappointing German Ifo sentiment survey that exacerbated concerns about the euro zone's economic outlook.

Having hit one-month highs just a week ago, weak data from Europe's powerhouse economy Germany have pushed bond yields back towards recent 2-1/2 year lows.

News overnight only added to a sense that world economic conditions remain weak, supporting fixed income markets.

South Korea's economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of the year, while the Bank of Japan pledged to keep interest rates "extremely low" at least through early 2020.

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday held interest rates steady but removed wording in its statement about the need for future hikes.

"The subdued global economic backdrop and the dovish tone from central banks means a continuation of the trend in bond markets seen in recent days," said Commerzbank rates strategist Rainer Guntermann.

"The euro zone economic data, starting with the PMIs last week, have been weaker than expected."

Germany's 10-year bond yield touched a two-week low at minus 0.019 percent DE10YT=RR, having dropped back into negative territory after Wednesday's Ifo sentiment index fell short of expectations.

Most 10-year euro zone bond yields were marginally higher on the day after hefty falls of 5-6 basis points the previous day FR10YT=RR, NL10YT=RR.

A key gauge of the market's long-term euro zone inflation expectations meanwhile dipped below 1.40 percent EUIL5YF5Y=R, having touched a one-month high earlier this week.

"We think the CPI (consumer price index) profile is going to be a lot lower than the market anticipated at the start of 2019," said Rabbani Wahhab, senior fixed income portfolio manager at London and Capital in London.

"So all in all, we expect this zero or negative environment for 10-year Bund yields to stay for some time come."

In southern Europe, 10-year bond yields were up to three bps higher on the day IT10YT=RR, with the Italian/German bond yield gap hitting its widest in two months at 267 bps DE10IT10=RR.

The gap between Spanish and safer German government bond yields DE10ES10=RR has also widened this week, a move analysts attributed to caution ahead of Spanish elections this weekend and Friday's S&P review of Italy's ratings.

Spain's election is its most divisive in decades and the outcome is uncertain, with no single party close to winning a parliamentary majority.

"We can't say for sure what the make-up of the next coalition will be, but I don't think it will challenge the consensus (on Europe)," said Michael Krautzberger, head of BlackRock's pan-European fixed income team.

"So I'm not too nervous about the Spanish election."

Germany's 10-year bond yield

(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Catherine Evans and Jan Harvey)

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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