Green Pool expects small global sugar deficit in 2024/25

Credit: REUTERS/Emmanuel Foudrot

LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The global sugar deficit is expected to widen to 788,000 metric tons in the 2024/25 year, meaning supplies will remain tight and prices likely to stay high, analyst Green Pool said on Tuesday in its initial forecast for the crop year.

The Australia-based sugar and biofuels analyst said the deficit in the 2023/24 season was forecast at 427,000 tons, sharply lower than the 8.40 million-ton-deficit in 2022/23.

"The global sugar balances appear highly likely to remain tight, and prices will likely stay high in order to encourage more production," the analyst said.

"Global stocks remain extremely tight, and will tighten further if our projected deficit for 24/25 year is realised," the analyst said.

Global production was forecast to rise 1.2% to 195.8 million tons in 2024/25, the second-highest total on record, with a larger crop in Thailand partly offset by a decline in India.

Consumption was seen rising by 1.1% to 195.6 million tons.

"On the consumption side, this is somewhat dependent on prices, but assuming that price does not escalate sharply, we see no reason to curtail global consumption," the report said.

Green Pool’s forecasts are based on crop year cycles. The balance between production and consumption is then adjusted for unexplained disappearances.

(Reporting by Nigel Hunt; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

((nigel.hunt@thomsonreuters.com; +44 (0) 7990 561421; Reuters Messaging: nigel.hunt.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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