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The Grain Report - USDA SPEAKS

USDA SPEAKS............... Look for a higher start to the week after large trading funds took profits from their portfolio banking grains, crude oil, gold, silver, cattle, hogs to cocoa. Funds fat with profits in all sectors felt the threat of rumors the government regulatory agencies were contemplating margin increases to address risk and reduce the pace of speculative buying by funds. Margin increases are unlikely though as exchange fees and regulatory fees per contract traded or simply to profitable for the government and exchanges but expanding limits may be the answer as larger limits have a history of neutralizing rallies or stalling them while keeping volume of trading actually higher. Large daily profits brings on profit-taking and selling when limits expand. Weather looks supportive with up to .75 inches with 60% coverage across the upper planes spring wheat, oat and corn states of the Dakotas, Minnesota Wisconsin Michigan and the Eastern grain belt of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio today and Saturday. Sunday to Tuesday sees .50 to 1.00 inches over the same area with a may 12th and 13th or next Thursday event possibly significantly wetter across the entire Midwest with 1 to 4 inches of rain. This fosters talk of planting falling far behind again after a pickup in planting this week. Corn planted after May generally sees lower yields. Also supporting prices to start the week is the Wednesday 7:30 AM central time monthly USDA crop report. Shorts will buy back positions and speculators buying long as the last 12 reports have generated fear of lower ending stocks. The report also gives us our first look for ending stocks for 2012 next year. Traders should expect a slight increase but number still dangerously low for corn and beans. Also Wednesday ,we have the winter wheat production estimates. Clearly the trade expects a bullish number with the winter wheat crop at 25 year low crop quality ratings. Recent wheat profit-taking could lead to a springboard rally into month-end as our winter wheat crop demise settles in and spring wheat acres potentially go on planted. The National Weather Service sees the remainder of May with well above normal rainfall for the upper planes states and continued un-seasonally cold weather, especially nightly temperatures. Outside the U.S. Canada's wheat fields continue to see well below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall through May, looking to have a second year of late planting and potential loss of acres. France, Germany and the UK, continue year two of a La Niña dry pattern with winter crops emerged in need of rain. Only 20% of normal rainfall fell in April after a dry March when dormancy broke. The drought in central and southern China not only is affecting the wheat but drinking water for half a million people so severe that authorities are discharging water from reservoirs to help livestock and people. This comes on desperation with reservoir levels down 67% of normal. Rivers or down 43% with rainfall in the southern grain provinces down 66%. Rainfall was half of normal in April over the northern provinces. If the worlds wheat woes continue through May were setting us up for a pop in prices similar to the August rally when the realization set in Russia's crop was doomed. On Monday and Tuesday the Chinese are here to meet with Obama,. again on needs. Last February's meeting brought the biggest single day bean purchases in history. Technicals read like this. December new crop corn support is 6.50 then 6.26. Resistance 6.64 then 6.64. November soybeans support lies at 12.90 then 1240 . Resistance is 13.75 then 14.10. July wheat support is 7.40 with resistance 7.70 then 8.08.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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