The Grain Report - REPORT TWO NEXT

REPORT TWO NEXT.......... Well, the first report is over and brought some real excitement in pricing volatility, but it will pale by comparison to what the June 30 report brings to pricing, but will we cover that later. Thursday's report started with corn. They put our 2011- 12 ending stocks at 695 million bushels down 205 m.b. from the last month and 105 under pre-report trade estimates. Ethanol production from corn and exports were left unchanged, but acres planted were cut 1.5 million acres and its loss production accounted for lower stocks. The rest of the flooded out or to late to plant acres show up on the June 30 report as they will take final planting numbers for the report through to next Thursday. On world stocks the USDA got more aggressive coming in at 111.89 million metric tons versus 129.14 last month as they increase livestock consumption and industrial usage like ethanol production. The Asian community, largely China, continue meet proteins mandates for expanding corn and chicken populations. The cuts in corn were a no-brainer after the coldest and wettest planting season on record with every major river along the grain belt busting it seems causing flooding that will idle land until next year. It's not over, WX RIS the weather site has a severely wet 6 to 10 day Outlook further threatening late planting from North Dakota to Ohio. Don't lose sight of the 3.5 million acres in Texas and Oklahoma under the worst drought in 50 years. More to lose here. The bean market was long-term bullish but report day bearish. Ending stocks for next year were put at 190 million bushels up 30 million bushels from last month and 25 over pre-report estimates. Largely on lower exports, which sounds good now but longer term demand surly will cut 190 down sharply as China enters at harvest time for new crop shipments. They left planted acres alone but June 30, should unveil some acreage reduction especially if the 10 day forecast holds true. We have to expect time to run out for Indiana, Ohio and North Dakota . Wheat ending stocks for 2011- 12 came in at 687 m.b. down 15 m.b. from May but still ample stocks. Total winter wheat production came in at 1.450 billion bushels up 26 m.b. hardly worth mentioning. The wheat story is on hold and a follower to corn now daily until weather arises as a pricing source. They had two price rallies in may prior the USDA crop report by and before month-end but June brought rains to dry European wheat countries up through this week and with ample stocks here and abroad wheat looks to trail corn now and wait for spring planting and growing news. The big question now is how much profit-taking can we see before buying enters and funds get position into the June 30 report. December corn has first support at 6.96 then our dream price 6.80. Resistance is 7.22 then 7.34. Option players can buy the August 8 .50 corn call on a dip at 10 cents or $500. If the June 30 report takes 2 or 3 m.a. or more out of production, we can expect a 1.00 to 1.50 surge in corn quickly. The fear value and time value would put the option value between 35 and $.45 on a one dollar move to the 8.50 area. The option doesn't expire until the third Friday of July, so it takes you into and past the report. The August options trade off the September corn futures. November beans support lies at 13.50 then13.25. Resistance is 14.10. A close over and a blowout occurs but it will take a bullish June 30 report for that. Option players can buying the August 15 .40 bean call for 10 cents or $500. A cut of 1 to 2 m.a. on the report will pop beans for about 1.50. With a 70 cent limit the first day and a 1.40 the next day it's an easy call. Trade the same as the corn option. If the report is shockingly bullish take profits on the day after the report rally and if not bullish sell them on report report day opening. We expect profits into the report so if you sell a negative report your loss or risk is minimal, yet profit potential is 3 to 4 times the investment.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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