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The Grain Report - RAINY USDA REPORTS

RAINY USDA REPORTS................ Monday began with pricing in the weeks weather. For the fifth consecutive week we traded higher on Sunday night and Monday day session pricing in the weeks weather that looks to have plantings slow up again after a small drier window to plant opened up last midweek. Monday and Tuesday looks to have up to 3 inches of rain across the upper plains and upper Midwest including northern Illinois up to 1 inch. Thursday and Friday sees the entire upper plains and Midwest with .25 and 1.25 inches while Saturday to next Tuesday each day with up to .50 inches with 50% coverage across the Midwest. Tuesday and Wednesday have been are profit-taking days off the weather rallies but Wednesday's big 7:30 AM central time USDA crop report will be released and that trumps all other issues including weather until its results are priced in. The average pre-report trade estimates for all winter wheat production is 1.387 b.b. with a range of 1.300 to 1.460 and 1.485 last year, the smallest since 2006. Anything under the average guess is bullish and over bearish for the opening Wednesday. Of course how much under or over determines the price swings on each commodity. It's obviously a bullish number but given the drought in key Southwest producing states, if the government is aggressive on the numbers we could see a very bullish report. Carryover stocks or inventory to be left over in reserve come the start of the new harvest and grain marketing year will be released. The new marketing year dates are June one for wheat with corn and soybeans September one. Corn ending stocks for 2011 are estimated at be 670 million bushels, down 5 m.b. from last month and down from 1.708 b.b. last year. Were already at a level historically low so 5 m.b. lower or higher means little to pricing. To move prices we need 50 m.b. either way. Our first estimates for next year's 2012 ending stocks comes out. The average guess is 822 m.b. with a wide range of 574 to1.192 b.b.. Over 1 b.b. is psychologically bearish on report day, While still a low number anything near the low end range and 2012 contracts could push limit up. Bean ending stocks for 2011 are estimated at 151 m.b. up 11 m.b. from the months prior and equal year ago. The range is 138 to 180. 2012 estimate is 174 m.b. with a range of 118 to 250. You can see like corn, beans to have a very wide range of next year's estimate. Wheats 2011 average guess is 840 million bushels versus 839 last month and 976 a year ago. A range of 815 to 868 is tight and any of these numbers keeps wheat stocks more than ample. 2012 stocks are pegged at 683 m.b. with a range of 432 to 829. Now, anything in the 400 m.b. area would be very bullish. This is going to be a very volatile report day Wednesday as we have to price in inventory changes for two years. Any surprises could easily have the market move to limit trade especially on 2012 contracts as their more thinly traded but the movie back to trading weather and its impact on planting by Friday as ultimately weather and its impact on this year planting and growing season determine our 2012 ending stocks inventory. After the close Monday our crop progress and condition report came out. It put corn planting at 40% complete versus the ten year average of 63% and 13% the week prior. Gains largely came in the Western grain belt of Iowa and Nebraska. But large trading funds tend to trade the problems in reports and problems in planting continue in North and South Dakota at 3% and 17% seeded respectively. Those two states account for half of corn's 4 m.a. increase planting this year. Our winter wheat crop condition came in at 33% good to excellent condition down 1% on the week and 66 a year ago ,while spring wheat planting at 22% the lowest this date on record. This all has traders awaiting and wondering how big production cuts we will see on Wednesday's crop report. Kansas our number one wheat producing states came in at 18% good to excellent down 3% from the week prior. Last weeks crop tour of Kansas estimated production at 256m.b. down 29% from the year prior with only 34% of the crops at key head development, so we can see an improvement if weather turns favorable immediately and through month-end. But forget Oklahoma and Texas their cooked and weather continues to look hotter and drier the next 10 to 15 days. In last weeks report, I noted that were setting up for two rallies in wheat. One, prior Wednesday's USDA report and a month-end rally. The first has occurred as were $.70 off Friday's low. Technical resistance for Wednesday on July futures lie at 8.50. A close over and 8.70 is next then 9.10. Support is 7.60. July beans support is 13.10 with resistance 13.60 . A close over and 14.10 is next. December new crop corn support is 6.26 with resistance at 6.65. A close over and 6.84 is next.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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