MONTH END NEARS.......... Next week is the last full trading week of the month. Index funds like to take profits before months ended pay those handsome bonuses on profits they get if they get out before the month closes. The importance to the trader is to be careful buying long on rallies as funds fat with profits will use rallies, especially new high rallies to take profits. Buy breaks only as breaks won't last in our current market environment where the trade believes crop yields are much lower than previous USDA reports suggest. A crop tour in the Midwest begins Monday and if grower reports are accurate. It should unveil smaller corn yields with ears not filled out and small kernel sizes. Beans should show small pods and pod counts in general. Surveys will vary but expect a friendly to bullish report surfacing daily. Watch the wheat closely. Trend following funds came in this week short 52,000 contracts. Should the drought in the Southwest winter wheat states of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas continue into and through the September planting season, we will see these funds buying back those contracts and push December wheat up near the 8.50 area. If the weather doesn't change and we don't have any hurricanes hit the golf Coast to bringing rain in the Southwest , this rally will have occurred before September ends. A close over 7.60 basis December futures is technically a buy signal, but look for breaks first. Should next week bring any day or a price correction use it to buy beans and corn as next weeks low will hold until after the September 12 USDA crop report as traders will want to be long into it expecting further cuts in yields and ending stocks. December corn finds support at 7.02 then 6.88 as worst case scenario. November beans support is 13.60 then 13.40. Resistance 13.98 and 14.10. December wheat support is 7.50 then 7.30.
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