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CONDITIONS CONTINUE............ This weeks action many lack last week's motivation. Last weeks private crop tour gave us daily news from one state to the next that yields were generally lower than previous USDA estimates and with strength in stocks and energy futures grain traveled the path of least resistance, up. I can't imagine any bearish crop news this week but we won't have the daily bullish notes from the crop tour scouts to feed the fire so trading could be un- even and of course always the threat of profit-taking by funds fat with profits as the month and the three-day holiday approaches. The crop tour put corn yields at 147.9 bushels per acre versus the August 11 USDA report of 153. If realized we could see ending stocks under 300 million bushels and corn in need of much higher prices to ration the crop. Here's the irony. The yields and eventual ending stocks number comes before the government addresses acres lost due to spring flooding and doesn't allow any room for increase export demand from China as the trade expects. It's the poor growing season and expected demand and usage that has some crop analyst talking $9 and $10 corn eventually but as always take one week at a time and the long-term takes care of itself. The tour came in with a bean yield of 41.8 versus the August 11 USDA report of 41.4. Math here would raise ending stocks, but the tour admits it approached the bean tour differently than corn and went with a pod count for a 3 foot square area. Not considered was bean and pod size and that will be a determining factor, so the bean yield and production remains to be determined as the month winds down . WXRISK.COM sees this week as hotter and drier than normal looking to stress yields on late planted beans. The USDA will use its monthly crop condition report for August to adjust yield and production for grains on the next report. They don't look at private crop tours. So the tour fuels the thoughts of traders, but USDA crop report fuels traders to trade futures. Traders will expect the September 12 USDA report to come in lower. In July corn condition in the good to excellent categories dropped seven points and we saw the August 11 crop report cut yields of corn from 158.7 to 153. In August we dropped eight points. Something to consider. Bean dropped in July four in August three in the good to excellent categories. Last nights crop condition report came in for corn at 54% good to excellent condition down from 57 the week prior, 70 a year ago and a season-high of 70%. Our big key producers continue to decline Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Iowa. Soybeans were 57% good to excellent versus 59 last week, 64 a year ago and under the years high up 68, big losers were Illinois, Iowa and Missouri. The weeks weather looks to continue deteriorating conditions in central and southern Illinois , Indiana and Missouri. Our big corn and bean producers Illinois, Iowa, Indiana and Missouri had their hottest July in 57 years and about 25% of normal moisture. Crops are done, don't expect any improvement and that looks to keep a very bullish mindset going into the crop report which will be released six days after we returned from the Labor Day holiday next Tuesday. In the meantime watch out for month-end or holiday profit-taking especially off of rallies. Technical support areas read like this. December corn support is 7.52 then 7.34. November beans support is 14.25 then 13.85. December wheat support is 7.75 then 7.60.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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